Comments on: Soon This Will End http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/03/03/soon-this-will-end/ Like Kryptonite To Stupid Sun, 22 Nov 2009 21:17:34 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Wellstone http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/03/03/soon-this-will-end/#comment-56337 Wellstone Tue, 04 Mar 2008 03:02:46 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=4011#comment-56337 Most analysts attribute Obama's "over-performance" to a flawed turnout model. He simply has inspired more people to turn out and vote in primaries, and a lot of them have been disaffected Republicans and independents in states with open primaries and caucuses. When you look at strictly Democratic voters, the picture changes. Then Senator Clinton holds a slight advantage or is even-steven. Interesting question: How much of Obama's turnout in the primaries will still turn out for Obama in a General? No one seems able to answer that one, especially when you factor in the anecdotal evidence that many votes were cast anti-Hillary rather than pro-Obama. Most analysts attribute Obama’s “over-performance” to a flawed turnout model. He simply has inspired more people to turn out and vote in primaries, and a lot of them have been disaffected Republicans and independents in states with open primaries and caucuses.

When you look at strictly Democratic voters, the picture changes.

Then Senator Clinton holds a slight advantage or is even-steven.

Interesting question: How much of Obama’s turnout in the primaries will still turn out for Obama in a General? No one seems able to answer that one, especially when you factor in the anecdotal evidence that many votes were cast anti-Hillary rather than pro-Obama.

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