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Texas And Ohio Prediction

February 20th, 2008 12 Comments

Senator Obama, with wins in Ohio and Texas, seems poised to have something like a 100+ delegate lead over Sen. Clinton. i expect to see some superdelegates jumping on the bandwagon in the next two weeks.

I think Sen. Obama will win Texas, while Ohio will remain with Sen. Clinton. Considering that she needs something like 60% wins to catch up, I don’t see good things. In other words, Texas and/or Ohio will join Mark Penn’s list of states that don’t matter.

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12 Responses to “Texas And Ohio Prediction”

  1. Quaker in a Basement says:
    February 20, 2008 at 11:28 am

    Jeez, Oliver. You make it sound like Texas is, you know, signifigant or something.

    If a smart fellow like Mr. Penn says it’s not signifigant, then we should pay it no attention.

  2. duros62 says:
    February 20, 2008 at 11:55 am

    Off topic, I know, but I just wanted to point out to our Red friends that Bush has invaded another sovereign country.

    In August, Sen. Barack Obama had made the argument that, as president, he would target Al Qaeda officials in Pakistan even without the country’s acquiescence — the type of attack that, six months later, proved to be successful.

    At the time, Obama was roundly criticized for his remarks, both by his Democratic competitors for the White House and by the Bush administration.

    Hmm. Imagine that.

  3. duros62 says:
    February 20, 2008 at 11:58 am

    Quaker, you know as well as I do that Texas is only significant if it goes to Clinton.

  4. C.S.Strowbridge says:
    February 20, 2008 at 12:02 pm

    I want to see recent polls for Vermont and Rhode Island. I want to see if Obama can sweep the four states.

  5. Quaker in a Basement says:
    February 20, 2008 at 12:16 pm

    Here’s my prediction:

    We’re going to get to do this all over again in 2012.

    Why?

    If McCain wins, he’ll be 76 (or is it 77?) when the next election rolls around.

    If Obama wins, he’s going to inherit a great big mess, and as a Washington outsider, have few reliable friends in Congress–one term and out!

    If Clinton wins, the GOP attack machine will cook up another “scandal” that will play endlessly on MSNBC, NYT, and WSJ.

    So if you thought this election was fun, just wait!

  6. midderpidge says:
    February 20, 2008 at 12:25 pm

    I disagree, if a democrat wins the election, start playing the expectations game. Hey! The outgoing Bush staff erased everything! Wow, it’s worse than we thought. On a related note: 19%

  7. duros62 says:
    February 20, 2008 at 12:37 pm

    The only polling for RI is stale. Brown University had Clinton up by 8.
    But it’s over a week old.
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ri/rhode_island_democratic_primary-544.html

  8. C.S.Strowbridge says:
    February 20, 2008 at 3:21 pm

    Thanks, duros62.

    8 points and a week old… I have to give Obama the edge here. Not a big edge, but an edge.

    On a side note. According to Rasmussen… The democrats are ahead in enough states to give them 284 EC votes, and there are 38 tossups.

    http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update

    I have slightly different numbers giving Obama a clear advantage (outside the margin of error) in enough states to win 259 EC votes. Also, of the top ten most competitive states nine of them were won by the Republicans last time so there’s huge number of possible pickups. (Only Conn. is a possible Republican grab, but that’s based on a poll that is months old.)

  9. Quaker in a Basement says:
    February 20, 2008 at 3:49 pm

    Whoever wins: just show me the inside of Cheney’s secret bunker and I’m yours for the duration. Deal?

  10. Enlightened Liberal says:
    February 20, 2008 at 4:09 pm

    In the end, as the public gets to know Obama (and McCain) it will be a landslide for Obama. I would be surprised if John Keat- er I mean McCain gets 40% of the vote.

  11. duros62 says:
    February 20, 2008 at 6:04 pm

    show me the inside of Cheney’s secret bunker

    I can’t wait for the next VP to move in. Hopefully, some guided tours with Keith Olberman will be in order.

  12. somejackass says:
    February 21, 2008 at 2:17 am

    Wow, look at the markets:

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Feb20.html

    80/20 Obama,from 40/60 only a few weeks ago. That’s what I call momentum.