Jay: “He’s still in the race. How can it be a ‘protest’ vote if he’s still running?”

He’s all but mathematically eliminated. In fact. I think there are enough proportional states left that Huckabee can’t win unless he wins close to 100% of the votes.

“This kind of stuff happens in primaries from time to time.”

No. No it doesn’t. A candidate being this far down and still picking up this much of the vote this late in the game is not normal. This is a bad sign, especially compared with the polls I quote in the other thread.

By the way, I found this, which I will post without comment…

http://www.point-spreads.com/politics/political-news-betting.html

Okay, I lied. I will comment. Ha ha ha.

Then you just haven’t been paying attention, Jay.

I don’t disagree. I was just pointing out that a love-fest at one debate is not indicative of there being a united front amongst Democrats.

He is basically a protest vote at this point. 40% protest is huge.

He’s still in the race. How can it be a ‘protest’ vote if he’s still running? If Huckabee drops out and garners 25%-40% in contest when he’s no longer running, but still on the ballot, THAT would be huge. But a former Baptist Pastor doing well in the south with a large population of evangelical Christians is not all that much of a surprise even though the eventual winner appears to be McCain. This kind of stuff happens in primaries from time to time. Again, it is not however, indicative of what is going to happen 8 months from now.

Jay: “CS, he won by 9 percentage points. In politics, that’s a romp.”

In the end, yes. Last numbers I saw when I wrote that it was 5%, which is not a romp.

Even so, Huckabee is practically mathematically eliminated. He is basically a protest vote at this point. 40% protest is huge.

The simple truth is that the Republicans are definitely more divided today than are Democrats.

Are they? I would say it has more to do with the fact that Huckabee was a Pastor for 12 years. Exactly what ‘grievances’ would evangelical Christian voters have with Senator McCain? If it could be shown that people are casting votes against McCain, rather than for Huckabee, then there would be serious trouble for McCain in November. But I haven’t seen anything that suggests that.

The last debate between Obama and Clinton could well have ended with a hug rather than a handshake.

Cmon. That was only because the debate just the week before almost broke out into a wrestling match. People were looking around to see if Vince McMahon was in the audience.

McCain barely beat Huckabee.

CS, he won by 9 percentage points. In politics, that’s a romp.

People tend to rally around the winner. Voting Huckabee at this point is a protest vote and that protest is loud in Virginia.

As long as Huckabee stays in the race and has supporters, they’re going to vote for him. And again, a vote for Huckabee isn’t necessarily a vote against McCain.

Do you know when the last time there was no incumbent on either side?

2000 and 1988 before that.

VA and MD are about the same

They’re not even close.

My view on this is going to stay the same:

If Hillary gets the nomination, she loses. I don’t care what anybody says, nothing will bring conservatives back to McCain faster than that scenario. Limbaugh et al can huff and puff all they want now, but they’ll change their tune.

If Barack Obama gets the nomination, it’s a whole different ballgame. He is going to draw independent voters, new voters, and more crossover votes than Hillary will. I’ve already made my decision. If Barack Obama gets the nomination, I’m voting for him.

White, woman of a certain age, Hillary’s prime target group. Too bad Hillary.

I was so happy voting.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/12/some-serious-warning-sign_n_86332.html

Of people who thought McCain was the best candidate to beat the Democrats in November, 30% still voted for Huckabee. That spells trouble for McCain. It is these people who could decide to vote for a third party ticket (Ron Paul?), or just stay home.

Remember, it would only take 5% of Republican voters staying home of voting for a third party to give the Democrats an easy win. And that if Independents don’t move closer to the Democrats in 2008 than they were in 2004.

More meaningless drivel from Jay. Maryland is a closed primary, so is DC. But look at how the numbers shake out:

VA – Obama 60% – Hillary 37%
MD – Obama 64% – Hillary 35%
DC – Obama 75% – Hillary 24%

VA and MD are about the same, so whatever can be gleaned from MD probably applies to VA.

In fact, according to exit polls, only about 7% of Republicans voted in the Dem primary. Some because they supported Obama and voted for him. Some because they would rather face Hillary and voted for her.

So you can actually tell a lot from these votes. Obama’s support is not only strong, but it’s spread out over a wide demographic.

And it is probably understandable for you to try and spin that down.

So?

“2. McCain’s nomination is pretty much in the bag and was before today. Turnout for the GOP primaries here on in is going to be lower than the Democrats because the Dem race is still very close. It has nothing to do with any lack of support for McCain.”

McCain barely beat Huckabee. If the nomination process is over, that shouldn’t happen. People tend to rally around the winner. Voting Huckabee at this point is a protest vote and that protest is loud in Virginia. That could be a sign that many, many people will just stay home in November.

“3. There is no correlation between primary enthusiasm and general election results. You can look at the chart here to see the numbers.”

Do you know when the last time there was no incumbent on either side? This numbers matter little without a direct comparison.

Interesting information. The guy is basically saying is that high turnout in the Primaries can have a positive impact on the General election if the end-product is a unifying figure for the party like Bush apparently was in 2000 but could have a negative impact if the Primary exposes divisions in the party that leave the candidate scarred in the General.

If I were you, I would be pretty worried by that assessment. The Republicans seem to be splitting at the seams. At the very least, Huck is drawing on grievances that fundamentalist Christian voters have for McCain. On the other side, there is amazing unity of purpose. The last debate between Obama and Clinton could well have ended with a hug rather than a handshake.

Do you interpret his data differently?

2. McCain’s nomination is pretty much in the bag and was before today. Turnout for the GOP primaries here on in is going to be lower than the Democrats because the Dem race is still very close. It has nothing to do with any lack of support for McCain.

3. There is no correlation between primary enthusiasm and general election results. You can look at the chart here to see the numbers.

I take from this that there are more people interested in voting for my candidate than are interested in voting for all other Republican candidates combined — irrespective of party. But that’s probably bad for Democrats.

Why not? People had a choice and they turned out to vote for Obama. McCain barely won his race, which means he doesn’t have the support of his own people.

I’d like to see head-to-head polls, but the Democrats have a solid shot at flipping Virgina blue.

This was the first time in my life (first Presidential vote in 1992) that I have voted FOR somebody rather than against somebody else. And it felt good in spite of the fact that Obama lost the state.