These are predictions, not certainties, in other words a fancy way of guessing.
* The next president will be a senator. Heh.
* The Democratic nomination will not go to the convention nor will it come down to a super delegate fight. Journalists dearly want this to happen because they want to be Dan Rather in 1968 but it ain’t happening.
* The next president will be a Democrat.
* If Sen. Clinton is the nominee, it will be a narrow win.
* If Sen. Obama is the nominee, it will be a comfortable win of 3-4% or more.
* Independents will decisively vote Democratic versus the split of 2004.
* The right will more or less rally for McCain, but the conservative base vote will be down, even if Clinton is the Democratic nominee.
* Democrats will gain in the House and Senate, but not enough in the Senate to get 60 seats.
* Democrats will win the Senate seats in Virginia and Minnesota.
* Virginia will go Democratic, Florida will stay Republican.
* The issue of what the McCain people do with George Bush will take up a lot of media oxygen.
* Neither Clinton nor Obama will choose the other to be their running mate.
* The Democratic running mate will be a white male.
“The right will more or less rally for McCain, but the conservative base vote will be down, even if Clinton is the Democratic nominee.”
This could be true, but like you say, they won’t be as energetic which will be less money and less volunteers.
However, they is a chance they will suicide the party in 2008 in order to regain a solid grip on the party for 2012. You have to ask yourself, is it better for the arch-conservative power base of the to let the people chose a winner, or show the party that without their support, they can’t win it all?
“Democrats will gain in the House and Senate, but not enough in the Senate to get 60 seats.”
Agreed, but I think they could get there in 2010 if the Republicans keep acting the way they are.
“Neither Clinton nor Obama will choose the other to be their running mate.”
This could be the only way to avoid a brokered convention. Also, Obama / Clinton would be a powerhouse ticket. I can’t see how the GOP could attack the ticket without revealing their racist / sexist side. Like I’ve said before, there would be a Macaca Moment every week. Perhaps every day if the polls show them down.
How about Obama/Edwards? His delegates thrown to Obama could be enough to make a difference. An Obama/Richardson ticket could give the Democrats a permanent Hispanic majority while giving the ticket some experience.
Edwards is a good VP pick for either one. Well, in an ideal world, each would pick to serve as Edwards’s VP, but that won’t happen.
My personal guess is that a Clinton win in November would be a point or two higher than an Obama win. I think the Republicans want to face Obama (at least while as they cared, which may no longer be so, now that McCain is the nominee), which explains the odd praise he has garnered from them. He lets them give the Southern Strategy another go, which, from their standpoint, is a smart move — the damn thing works.
CSS: 2010 will be a boon for whoever loses in 2008, the usual scenario which prevails so long as there is not another consideration (1998 was a referendum on impeachment, 2002 was a referendum on invading Iraq).
It won’t flip this cycle for obvious reasons, but the state for which to look to flip is Arizona. The Democrats have been gradually gaining there for years.
Obama and Clinton.
I imagine nearly everyone thought the same with Kennedy and Johnson. If Clinton wins the nomination, the pressure to add Obama will be very powerful.
Minnesota.
This may sound strange and I can’t really explain it, but the thought of Senator Al Franken fills me with hope for the future of America.
McCain and Bush.
McCain’s only hope is to continue to embrace Bush and extol him as a paragon of bold leadership. It is his only connection to the right wing and he will be flogging the military stuff. Bush will run the federal government as an extension of the McCain campaign.
Winning margin.
I won’t feel comfortable with a 3-4% margin. To get a mandate for transformation, and for repudiation of the Bush/Cheney Junta, Clinton or Obama is going to have to win by a touchdown or more.
Unmentioned by OW.
What the next president really needs is new leadership in both houses of the congress.
“CSS: 2010 will be a boon for whoever loses in 2008, the usual scenario which prevails so long as there is not another consideration (1998 was a referendum on impeachment, 2002 was a referendum on invading Iraq).”
However, if the Republicans continue to act against the American people, they will be punished. I don’t see the American people changing their minds about the Democrats or Republicans in two years and the Republicans will have to defend a lot of states. And in many cases, I can see retirements happening instead of sitting in the minority for at least another 2 years.
McCain…
More of the Same.
It doesn’t quite rhyme, but it is catchy.
On a side note, McCain seems to have benefited from voting irregularities in Washington, just like in Florida. This could be a issue to push during the general election.