Comments on: Poll Watching http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/02/03/poll-watching-2/ Like Kryptonite To Stupid Sun, 21 Mar 2010 09:54:27 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: C.S.Strowbridge http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/02/03/poll-watching-2/#comment-57438 C.S.Strowbridge Mon, 04 Feb 2008 04:49:13 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=4268#comment-57438 You have to remember Ron Paul will be running as a third party candidate, and he might have more money than McCain. You have to remember Ron Paul will be running as a third party candidate, and he might have more money than McCain.

]]> By: midderpidge http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/02/03/poll-watching-2/#comment-57437 midderpidge Sun, 03 Feb 2008 18:28:59 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=4268#comment-57437 It's weird, I saw that Ann Coulter endorsed Hillary over McCain. I really don't see the right rising up to embrace McCain. The economy doesn't look like its going to improve any time soon, that doesn't help Republicans in general, and McCain has that sound bite of him saying he doesn't understand the economy. There go the independents. Also, if Iraq blows up again before the election, which will probably happen if Al Sadr doesn't extend his cease fire; McCain will go down in flames. Even Republicans are getting tired of the war. It’s weird, I saw that Ann Coulter endorsed Hillary over McCain. I really don’t see the right rising up to embrace McCain.

The economy doesn’t look like its going to improve any time soon, that doesn’t help Republicans in general, and McCain has that sound bite of him saying he doesn’t understand the economy. There go the independents.

Also, if Iraq blows up again before the election, which will probably happen if Al Sadr doesn’t extend his cease fire; McCain will go down in flames. Even Republicans are getting tired of the war.

]]> By: Oliver Willis http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/02/03/poll-watching-2/#comment-57436 Oliver Willis Sun, 03 Feb 2008 17:42:21 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=4268#comment-57436 I don't bet, but I can almost (almost because nothing is 100%) guarantee a Democratic win in November - no matter who the nominee is. With Sen. Clinton the number would look more like 2000 (but with the electoral college in favor of the Dems), whereas with Obama it would be closer to 2004 in favor of the Dems. McCain will do better among indies than Romney would, but he won't win the independent vote like Bush did. Also, the Hillary Hate can only go so far. Many of those conservative voters would turn out anyways - there is no war/gay marriage boogeyman to motivate the rube vote in the same numbers as 2004, whereas Democratic voters are at probably a higher level of engagement than 2004 because they can taste the presidency. I don’t bet, but I can almost (almost because nothing is 100%) guarantee a Democratic win in November – no matter who the nominee is. With Sen. Clinton the number would look more like 2000 (but with the electoral college in favor of the Dems), whereas with Obama it would be closer to 2004 in favor of the Dems. McCain will do better among indies than Romney would, but he won’t win the independent vote like Bush did. Also, the Hillary Hate can only go so far. Many of those conservative voters would turn out anyways – there is no war/gay marriage boogeyman to motivate the rube vote in the same numbers as 2004, whereas Democratic voters are at probably a higher level of engagement than 2004 because they can taste the presidency.

]]> By: Jay http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/02/03/poll-watching-2/#comment-57435 Jay Sun, 03 Feb 2008 17:10:19 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=4268#comment-57435 Oliver, I will bet you $500 that if McCain is the nominee and Hillary is the nominee, she loses. If it was Mitt or anybody else, then she'd win. She will not beat McCain because he will get more of the independent vote along with conservatives being galvanized to see Hillary lose. ABC just did a poll of registered voters (not just all adults) and Hillary loses to McCain by 5 percentage points whereas Obama and McCain are a virtual dead heat. Oliver, I will bet you $500 that if McCain is the nominee and Hillary is the nominee, she loses.

If it was Mitt or anybody else, then she’d win. She will not beat McCain because he will get more of the independent vote along with conservatives being galvanized to see Hillary lose. ABC just did a poll of registered voters (not just all adults) and Hillary loses to McCain by 5 percentage points whereas Obama and McCain are a virtual dead heat.

]]> By: Oliver Willis http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/02/03/poll-watching-2/#comment-57434 Oliver Willis Sun, 03 Feb 2008 16:07:48 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=4268#comment-57434 Sure, moreso than with Obama -- but not enough to win. Sure, moreso than with Obama — but not enough to win.

]]> By: Jay http://www.oliverwillis.com/2008/02/03/poll-watching-2/#comment-57433 Jay Sun, 03 Feb 2008 13:24:03 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=4268#comment-57433 <i>I don't see them going balls to the walls for McCain.</i> They will if Hillary is the Democratic nominee. I don’t see them going balls to the walls for McCain.

They will if Hillary is the Democratic nominee.

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