Shorter polls: We don’t know. We seriously don’t know.
Gallup and Fox have Sen. Clinton in the lead, with one showing an uptick for her.
Washington Post says it’s tied.
Reuters/Zogby (stll iffy, though they seem to have gotten some recent #s right) says Obama has a slight lead in CA while it’s pretty much a tossup in a pile of states
My gut and natural fatalism says Sen. Obama will come close but not close enough, but I didn’t think he would win Iowa, I thought Sen. Clinton would lose New Hampshire, and I thought South Carolina would be a single-digit win.
I do predict that if the contest rolls on significantly to the 12th, Sen. Obama will win Maryland even though the governor and Sen. Mikulski have endorsed Sen. Clinton (Sen. Cardin has not endorsed anyone).
My optimistic side says the pollsters are discounting increased black and youth turnout, which will be vital to Sen. Obama making a serious upset.
On the Republican side, I am beyond amused at conservative distaste with McCain. It’s no secret that many on the more left side of the Democratic base aren’t exactly wild about Sen. Clinton, but it’s nothing like how the right foams at the mouth for McCain. If McCain is the nominee – and that seems almost to be as in the bag as these things get before an actual election – I think we’ll look back at 2004 as that weird exception, where conservatives got out the vote like crazy. I get the logic of them looking at George Bush as the messiah of November of 2004 and the only one who will be the big daddy with the terrorists they wet their pants over, but even with his support of the war (which will turn off independents, though not in the numbers it would with Romney, because McCain has an actual personality) I don’t see them going balls to the walls for McCain. The analogue for Democrats would be getting enthusiastic over Joe Lieberman.
In an echo of 1996 the GOP establishment is going to line up behind a veteran senator, and Hugh Hewitt will say he loved McCain all along.
The best thing about this election is that it doesn’t seem like just us political junkies are paying attention. America is paying attention, and its not because of the Republicans and their same-old same-old candidates. They’re paying attention to the Democratic field and the paradigm-shifting mind-blow that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama deliver to American history.
And it is awesome.
I don’t see them going balls to the walls for McCain.
They will if Hillary is the Democratic nominee.
Sure, moreso than with Obama — but not enough to win.
Oliver, I will bet you $500 that if McCain is the nominee and Hillary is the nominee, she loses.
If it was Mitt or anybody else, then she’d win. She will not beat McCain because he will get more of the independent vote along with conservatives being galvanized to see Hillary lose. ABC just did a poll of registered voters (not just all adults) and Hillary loses to McCain by 5 percentage points whereas Obama and McCain are a virtual dead heat.
I don’t bet, but I can almost (almost because nothing is 100%) guarantee a Democratic win in November – no matter who the nominee is. With Sen. Clinton the number would look more like 2000 (but with the electoral college in favor of the Dems), whereas with Obama it would be closer to 2004 in favor of the Dems. McCain will do better among indies than Romney would, but he won’t win the independent vote like Bush did. Also, the Hillary Hate can only go so far. Many of those conservative voters would turn out anyways – there is no war/gay marriage boogeyman to motivate the rube vote in the same numbers as 2004, whereas Democratic voters are at probably a higher level of engagement than 2004 because they can taste the presidency.
It’s weird, I saw that Ann Coulter endorsed Hillary over McCain. I really don’t see the right rising up to embrace McCain.
The economy doesn’t look like its going to improve any time soon, that doesn’t help Republicans in general, and McCain has that sound bite of him saying he doesn’t understand the economy. There go the independents.
Also, if Iraq blows up again before the election, which will probably happen if Al Sadr doesn’t extend his cease fire; McCain will go down in flames. Even Republicans are getting tired of the war.
You have to remember Ron Paul will be running as a third party candidate, and he might have more money than McCain.