South Carolina Poll Failure

2:27 am EST January 28th, 2008 | News | 3 Comments

What I haven’t seen anyone discuss is that the average margin of victory in South Carolina was forecast at about 11.5% in South Carolina. Sen. Obama won by 28%, more than double the forecast number. Considering Sen. Clinton’s win in New Hampshire when many polls had her down by double digits, it’s probably safe to say that nobody — nobody — has a clue what to expect on Super Tuesday.

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3 Responses to “South Carolina Poll Failure”

  1. jerry says:
    January 28, 2008 at 9:30 am

    it’s probably safe to say that nobody — nobody — has a clue what to expect on Super Tuesday.

    Sadly, I am still confident that Gore will not be winning Super Tuesday. :(

  2. drinkof says:
    January 28, 2008 at 9:36 am

    I think we should pose a ‘reverse Bradley’ effect, where those who are going to vote for the black candidate hold back to pollsters in order to make the ultimate total seem more dramatic!

    Makes as much sense as attributing the NH results to the Bradley effect, doesn’t it?

    How about the ‘any explanation other than that pollsters are losing control of their audience’? Those being asked are increasingly aware of the various nuances of how their answers are being used, and either shading answers to suit that purpose or simply refusing to answer. The foundations have shifted, and any other explanation is better than that one.

  3. OxyCon says:
    January 28, 2008 at 10:51 am

    What I don’t understand is why Obama didn’t have Oprah on stage with him for his big South Carolina victory lap.
    She is, after all, the person most responsible for his big win.
    The polls shifted dramatically the moment that Oprah said she would campaign for Obama in South Carolina and all the momentum shifted to Obama the moment Oprah did her Obama promotion on December 9th.
    It was Oprah’s huge television audience that won the day for Obama.
    Why aren’t the pundits talking about that?
    The proof is right here in this chart:

    http://www.americablog.com/2008/01/polls-show-clinton-support-plummeted.html