Some Thoughts

1:55 am EST January 10th, 2008 | News | 2 Comments

* Sen. Clinton will surely get a bump out of New Hampshire, but Sen. Obama seems to be helped by the 10 days between contests – Obama did not get as much of a bump out of Iowa, and clearly New Hampshire wasn’t a blowout

* Don’t the racial demographics of Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida work in Obama’s favor? There’s the possibility that New Hampshire spooked some of the black vote, but I don’t see it. The victory for Clinton was close, but I don’t see a Bradley effect – he got more than just minority support.

* The media narrative is that it’s all about women. But I think in the long run the hope vs experience talk is going to be more of a determinant. I think both Clinton and Obama have already passed the “electability” test in the eyes of the Democratic electorate.

* My mom says Obama is going to go all the way, so there’s that. Heh.

* The last Nevada poll had Clinton +20, but that was way back in December. The unions lined up behind Obama don’t hurt, especially in a newbie caucus state where organization will be key.

* Conservative bloggers, wrong as always, are saying that this nomination process will result in a bloodied Democratic nominee. Last election the process was front-loaded to produce a quickie nominee who turned out to be a good guy but not ready to take on the conservative machine. Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton are already positioned to be more responsive to the conservative assault coming this summer and fall, especially against a GOP whose winner in New Hampshire had 40,000 less votes than the second place Democrat (that’s a good warmup for Democratic GOTV in swing states like NH and IA).

* As an Obama supporter, I was worried that wins by Edwards in Iowa and Clinton in New Hampshire would mortally wound the Obama campaign. The expectations after the Iowa win hurt a little bit, but I think Sen. Obama has a legit shot in Nevada and South Carolina to start his own “comeback kid” narrative (this election is already so out of whack with historical trends, it may completely negate – in the long term – the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire).

* I still think Al Gore has the potential to tip this race in favor of one of the candidates. An endorsement before Super Tuesday would heat up the press and sway last minute deciders. I contacted the PR firm that works for him and their only response was to direct me to his previous statements on the record that he was not decided whether he wants to endorse someone or not.

* Who was the braniac in Maryland who put our primary a week after Super Tuesday? Even though O’Malley and Sen. Mikulski have endorsed Sen. Clinton, Sen. Obama would likely romp to a win here. Then again, considering how unpredictable this race is – it might still matter.

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2 Responses to “Some Thoughts”

  1. Jay says:
    January 10, 2008 at 10:21 am

    I don’t know about you, but I’m not comfortable knowing there are people out there that need somebody else to make their decision for them as to who to vote for. That goes for anybody, not just Al Gore.

  2. Quaker in a Basement says:
    January 10, 2008 at 3:58 pm

    All good stuff, OW.

    Obama did not get as much of a bump out of Iowa,
    To the contrary, I think he got a sizable bump out of Iowa. Before his win, anyone would have called it shocking to think he would come within 2 points of Clinton in New Hampshire. Firewall, remember?

    Don’t the racial demographics of Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida work in Obama’s favor?
    South Carolina definitely. Florida, less so.
    Not sure about Nevada. I predict Obama in SC and Clinton in FL.

    I think both Clinton and Obama have already passed the “electability” test in the eyes of the Democratic electorate.
    Certainly true for me.

    My mom says Obama is going to go all the way,
    Never, ever argue with your mother.