With just 2-3% separating Clinton and Obama on Tuesday night and more or less a push so far in the delegate race, I have to wonder what the Edwards vote (17% in NH, 30% in Iowa) represents. I don’t see a path for victory for him, and my guess is that in the next few weeks his voters will start seeing some kind of futility kick in – he’s not in the scrub league with Richardson & Co. but neither is he at the Obama/Clinton level. My feeling is that about 60% of his vote would go to Obama, but that’s at best a guess (I’m the guy who thought Edwards would win Iowa and Obama would win New Hampshire, so go figure).
Anyone have any thoughts on the future of the Edwards vote?
Since I’m one of the few Edwards supporters around here, the delegate count is very close. Obama 16, clinton 15, and Edwards 14. Moreover, only 1% of the nation has voted thus far.
I wouldn’t count Edwards out just because the other two have more money and get the buzz. I was honored to be a guest on the BBC radio yesterday and got to speak for Edwards’ positions and what he would do for change in America. So far, another change is that he would effectively manage the EOB very well, if his campaign is any sign.
http://worldhaveyoursay.wordpress.com/2008/01/08/how-should-america-change/
I think Edwards could push 60% of his supporters to the person he says choses to endorse, which would be enough if it remains this close. Right now Obama only has one more delegate than Clinton (25 to 24), but Edwards has 18. If Obama or Clinton pulls ahead by a significant margin, then it won’t matter who Edwards endorses, if he endorses anyone. He could decide to stay until the end just to be able to have a voice in the debate.
I’m not supporting anyone in particular, but I generally think his speech last night was kind of relevant. He lost 2 out the 49 primaries that are going to happen, and he’s “behind” in the form of having only having 52 of the 2,025 delegates needed for the nomination, whereas Clinton has a whopping… 180.
Assuming his money holds out (which it might not, of course) there’s no reason for him to bow out before Super Tuesday. If/when he flops in all those states, I’ll agree we can start gravedigging.
I don’t think Edwards has reached Fred Thompson levels of denial just yet. If it’s a “safe bet” he’s done, I have some wonderful “Obama by 15 in New Hampshire” polls to show you.
Ummm…I’m in Maryland, but Obama is my last choice, so my vote would go to Hillary instead of Obama.
While I’m not fond of his using right wing talking points, it was his entire “dog whistle” gay baiting appeal with Donnie McClurkin made him my last choice.
By last choice, I mean AFTER Gravel.
Colorado votes on Super Tuesday. If Edwards is still in it my vote goes to him.
Clinton and Obama are far too conservative for my tastes.
If Edwards is out and Richardson is still in (unlikely I know) my vote goes to Richardson.
Clinton and Obama are my last choices and I do not know how to choose between them.
First they are both too conservative for my tastes.
Second as sitting Senators they will get creamed in the General Election by Romney or Huckabee. I really wish the Democratic party would get over the delusion that sitting Senators can become President. It has happened twice.
The next Democratic President will not be able to accomplish anything without strong voices in the Senate. I am hoping that President Edwards can count on Senators Obama and Clinton to push a progressive agenda through the Senate.
In November I will vote for the Democratic candidate. I am hoping it is not Clinton or Obama because I fear they will loose and loose big.
By last choice, I mean AFTER Gravel.
That’s harsh.
Whenever Edwards speaks, all I can think of is “Now, what would it take to get you in this car today?”
And whenever I see, “Now, what would it take to get you in this car today?” I always imagine it in Bob Dylan’s voice.
Yes, duros62, it’s harsh.
I’m a straight guy, but the only way I’m voting for a gay basher is if the other person is worse and a gay basher.
Anyone who gives a wink and a not for bigotry, does not deserve election.
Remember, George Wallace only became a processional bigot when he realized that he needed to do so to be elected.
Whenever Edwards speaks, all I can think of is “Now, what would it take to get you in this car today?”
That’s what I think when I see Romney.
Richardson is out. Surprised, but I guess his internal polls in NV looked bleak as well.
I see a path. He’s been close, but he hasn’t been the focus and thus he can keep up.
Whenever Edwards speaks, all I can think of is “Now, what would it take to get you in this car today?”
That’s what I think when I see Romney.
Well, yeah, him to, but not in the southern drawl. Romney’s more like an insurance agent.
I’m a straight guy, but the only way I’m voting for a gay basher is if the other person is worse and a gay basher
Whoa, did I miss something? When did Obama directly bash gays? I mean, I’m straight too, but I don’t remember that.