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Iowa Data Point

January 4th, 2008 4 Comments

Barack Obama won the Iowa caucuses by 7.83%. In 2004, John Kerry won the caucuses by a smaller 5.8% margin and went on to win the Democratic nomination.

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4 Responses to “Iowa Data Point”

  1. SaveFarris says:
    January 4, 2008 at 5:51 pm

    If the Kerry scenario holds (an Iowa win leads to a coronation march instead of a “true” primary), that would be the worst possible outcome for Obama, because it would lead to the same problem Kerry suffered from, namely the lack of experience with dealing with a formidable opponent.

    Kerry had spent his whole career in Lib-friendly Massachusetts. And when Dean imploded and Edwards all but wore a nametag saying “Please pick me for Veep”, Kerry swept to the nomination having never learned to take a punch. A couple of Swift Boat and windsurfing ads later, Kerry didn’t know how to respond and his campaign was doomed.

    Obama’s been flying under the radar what with Hillary’s sense of inevitability. Everyone’s been aiming their fire at her (save the “Is he a secretly a sleeper agent?” nonsense). If Obama wins NH and the Dem field go down without a fight, Obama STILL won’t have had a true electoral contest his entire career. Do Dems want to make a true rookie their standardbearer?

    Of course, most of this will be irrelevant anyway. Hillary’s Terminator-esque qualities means she’s not going down without a no-holds-barred fight. Meaning Obama will have to earn it. If he survives the upcoming Clinton apocalypse, he deserves call himself an election “veteran”.

  2. Oliver Willis says:
    January 4, 2008 at 6:27 pm

    Well that’s the thing. Dems were in a rush in 2004 to pick someone to take down Bush, the decision to pick Kerry was based on people playing strategist and thinking which Dem would be most acceptable to red-staters. In 2008, so far, the fight seems to be more about what being a Dem is all about rather than playing strategist. Obama will have a fight, but he’ll also have people with his back.

  3. Enlightened Liberal says:
    January 4, 2008 at 10:46 pm

    I would really be worried if I was a Republican. Anyone remotely electable (McCain) isn’t palatable to the extreme right wing base. There is a real change that the Democratic nominee will win the general by a 60-40 margin.

    Obama is the man, not only for his vision but because his victory will have coattails.

  4. duros62 says:
    January 5, 2008 at 1:45 pm

    If the Kerry scenario holds (an Iowa win leads to a coronation march instead of a “true” primary), that would be the worst possible outcome for Obama, because it would lead to the same problem Kerry suffered from, namely the lack of experience with dealing with a formidable opponent.

    I don’t think that’s so. Obama has shown himself to respond to critics swiftly and strongly. I don’t think he’s going to be Mr. Softee like Kerry.

    Having said that, I also don’t put much stock in the statistical analysis of such things, like “If candidate A does this by this date in this state, then…”
    Kinda like baseball stats in a way. “Player X got this many hits while wearing a garter belt under his uniform last year…”