Comments on: Bandwagon In NH: Clinton, McCain Hurt

By: midderpidge

midderpidge — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 23:27:09 +0000

I would like to just point out that the NH GOP just pulled out as co-sponsor of the FOX debate. Apparently they were too biased against certain outsider Republicans. Do we have Orthodox republicans versus the heretical Reform Republicans?

By: C.S.Strowbridge

C.S.Strowbridge — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 06:37:17 +0000

“Oliver, that’s possible, but unlikely due to the fact that NH’s primary is not really ‘open’ in the sense that if you’re registered as a Republican or Democrat, you most vote in those primaries. I don’t think the truly ‘independent’ voters are going to matter that much in the primary as it will in a general election.”

Of course the independents matters. And yes, independents choosing to vote for Obama will hurt McCain and help Romney.

By: Diamond LeGrande

Diamond LeGrande — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 01:46:43 +0000

I’m not that sure Obama is as big winner here as Oliver thinks he is. (Though Oliver is going for Obama and I’m for Edwards of the big three may direct our thinking.) The guy is from Illinois, and he did his best in counties near the Illinois border, where his organization would be strongest.

But McCain is the big loser for the Republicans, no doubt about that. Fred Fucking Thompson finished ahead of McCain. The Republicans’ two most electable candidates, Giuliani and McCain, going down in flames. Assuming the Republican establishment manages to take care of its Huckabee problem, Romney is the nominee–not because folks like him, but because the other two guys crashed and burned while the party suits warded off the Hayseed Revolution.

They’re better off losing with Huckabee than losing with any other candidate. That way, they can tell the Religious Right, “We told you so, you didn’t listen, and now you have four years of Hillary/Obama/Edwards. We don’t like it either, but it serves you rubes right. Learn to use a garage and listen to us.” If they can stomach losing (and accept it advance), this might be the best way for them to deal with the Huckabee problem.

By: Jay

Jay — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 20:54:42 +0000

Oliver, that’s possible, but unlikely due to the fact that NH’s primary is not really ‘open’ in the sense that if you’re registered as a Republican or Democrat, you most vote in those primaries. I don’t think the truly ‘independent’ voters are going to matter that much in the primary as it will in a general election.

By: Oliver Willis

Oliver Willis — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 20:11:04 +0000

Obama can’t “kill” McCain in New Hampshire as one primary has nothing to do with the other.
If independents choose to vote in the Dem primary and not the GOP primary, that would likely hurt and possibly “kill” John McCain – who is relying on independent support to put him over Romney.

By: James E. Powell

James E. Powell — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 18:07:22 +0000

I don’t know if 2004 is a useful guide for measuring the effects of Iowa on New Hampshire. What happened in 2004 was more about the collapse of the Dean campaign rather than the ascendancy of the Kerry campaign.

I wonder, though, if Edwards is about to get buried.

Well, we don’t have long to wait. I hate the fact that the primaries will be over so quickly.

By: midderpidge

midderpidge — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:50:51 +0000

I guess we’ll see if Obama can continue the young voter draw with the college break now being over.

The top three democrats each received way more votes than the top Republican.

If Jay thought not giving a damn about anybody but yourself, and doing anything to win were reasons not to vote for a candidate, you have to wonder why he was/is a big Bush supporter.

By: SaveFarris

SaveFarris — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:04:57 +0000

The “official” primary season isn’t 24 hours old yet, and I’m already tired of the “THE MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION OF OUR LIFETIMES!!!!!” promos.

Just. Stop.

The question now is whether Obama can weather being “the frontrunner”. Everyone is going to be gunning for him now, especially a certain former First Lady. Can he weather the storm and still remain positive? If he gets dragged into the mud with his rivals, he loses A LOT of his crossover appeal.

PS: Huckabee’s MSM-colonscopy is coming, and it’s gonna be grim.

By: duros62

duros62 — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:00:26 +0000

Would somebody PLEASE tell Chris Matthews to stop referring to Obama’s win as a third world victory? He must have said it half a dozen times last night. I find it patently offensive.

And st00pid.

By: Jay

Jay — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 13:46:06 +0000

Obama can’t “kill” McCain in New Hampshire as one primary has nothing to do with the other.

I saw on some blog where Hillary was likened to the terminator: “She can’t be bargained with. She can’t be reasoned with. She doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And she absolutely will not stop, ever.” That’s one thing you can take to the bank. I warned that Hillary wouldn’t hesitate to get in the mud to win. Her campaign already has in some ways and I can guarantee it will only get worse, especially if she’s on the ropes. The Clinton’s don’t give a sh*t about anybody but themselves and will do ANYTHING to win.

I like Obama (you can see what I said about him here). At a minimum (to me anyway), him getting the nomination would at the very least, keep Hillary Clinton and John Edwards away from the White House.

By: bill l.

bill l. — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 09:40:44 +0000

It’s hard to say anything absolute about the Iowa results, but Hillary needs to be very worried. She polled well in Iowa and had a comfortable lead until push came to shove and people actually had to pull the trigger, then she tanked. This not only explains the big margin for Obama, but the jump for Edwards as well. If that trend carries into SC and NH, she’s utterly screwed. The perception that she is unelectable will be set in cement and those national polls will evaporate. Of course, this didn’t have to happen (and she may still pull out wins). Her campaign seems to have put a stop, finally, to it’s ham fisted attempts to attack Obama, and the whole issue with planting questions has faded. Her campaign still seems to be on defense, though, and issues like her war votes and cozy relationship with lobbyists and major corporations are coming back to hit her hard. Again, it’s hard to predict what will happen next, and NH is a much more Clinton friendly state, but the “inevitable” Clinton nomination may now be anything but.

By: riffle

riffle — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 08:52:03 +0000

Obama can’t “kill” any Republican (i.e. McCain) in New Hampshire. He can’t even “kill” Hillary or even Edwards.

He can build momentum I suppose,and I hope he does. I thinks Obama is the bees knees.

Then it’s to the general. As of now, it looks like the Republican power trust and the media who support them (basically all the media, as revealed most dribbingly via Chris Matthews) will support McCain–anyone except that old Jesus-Lover Huckabee. Can the media’s love for a very old and decrepit fairly doctrinaire republican beat obama?

Well, George W. Bush won bascially cause the media hated Gore and Kerry. It could happen again, if the New Scaifes run a good swiftie against Obama. It could happen.

I do hope Obama wins. I like the guy.

By: Oliver Willis

Oliver Willis — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 08:06:01 +0000

It will be interesting to see the national polling between NH and Super Tuesday. My guess is if Sen. Obama wins NH, it will cut strongly into Sen. Clinton’s national lead.

By: C.S.Strowbridge

C.S.Strowbridge — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 08:04:08 +0000

If Obama can kill McCain in New Hampshire, the last hope for Republicans will die with him. However, if Clinton can make it even close, she still has a massive national lead and she will be tough to take on in places like Florida. She wins there, she can win Super-Mega-Really-Fuckin’-Awesome Tuesday and win the nomination.