Comments on: Iowa Caucus 2007 Thread Of Awesome

By: Diamond LeGrande

Diamond LeGrande — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 12:57:51 +0000

They’re already up in arms about Huckabee. He is a huge problem for them. If he’s on the top of the ticket, they’re toast. Independent voters, who are wary of Republicans other than McCain and Paul, will support whatever Democratic nominee in droves, as will some of the Village Idio-er, Republicans. Heck, were this a football game, the Democrats would put Mike Gravel at the top of the ticket to keep the game closer. It’s that bad.

If they go after him the way they went after John McCain in 2000 or the Democrats went after Howard Dean in 2004, it might actually be worse, since that would probably alienate the Religious Right. Either Huckabee or someone similar runs as a third-party candidate and siphons off votes, or the Religious Right stays home. Either case puts a Democrat in the White House, and now they have the Religious Right–about a third of the party–willing to bolt the party. This has been simmering for a couple of years and a hit job on Huckabee could bring it to the boiling point. The Republicans would either have a third of their party in a third party, or its candidates would have to espouse views even closer to those of the Religious Right, thoroughly alienating independent voters.

Their best bet is to have either McCain or Romney surge ahead in New Hampshire so that Huckabee plods away in a distant second or third, and then is handed the VP half to appease him. Doing this is going to be as tricky as hell for them. The Huckabee hicks think they can win the nomination, and I’m not sure they’re wrong anymore.

By: megamoze

megamoze — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 08:45:28 +0000

Their spokes-creatures do not seem thrilled with Huckabee.

That may be, but the exit polling shows that Huckabee got 73% of those who are “satisfied” or “enthusiastic” about the Bush administration.

By: James E. Powell

James E. Powell — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 07:00:09 +0000

I fully expect the Republican Establishment to go all out for McCain. Their spokes-creatures do not seem thrilled with Huckabee.

By: C.S.Strowbridge

C.S.Strowbridge — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 04:38:01 +0000

The turn out was much higher than expected, which helped Obama dramatically. I was expecting between 100,000 and 150,000.

However, I think it is still anyone’s game for the three Democrats. Richardson could be going for V.P. with Obama instead of Clinton now.

On the Republicans side, McCain is still alive, even if he ends is fourth place, but he will need to win in New Hampshire. Giuliani is dead, Thompson is dead if he drops to fourth by the end, Ron Paul is going to be a major pain for the Republicans as an Libertarian candidate. Romney is dead if he doesn’t top Huckabee in New Hampshire, and this lost will hurt him. Huckabee needs a second place finish in New Hampshire to maintain his momentum. McCain will take the lead nationally if he wins decisively in New Hampshire, which would be the worst case scenario for the Democrats.

By: drinkof

drinkof — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 04:23:00 +0000

Ahem … while I wasn’t perfect (putting Clinton ahead of Edwards, close enough), I have to note with all due humility that I was apparently the only reader to call the Obama victory.

By: Diamond LeGrande

Diamond LeGrande — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 03:34:43 +0000

Obama is still running to the right of Hillary Clinton. That is not a territory that excites me. Edwards/Obama is the best-bet ticket for the Democrats, though if McCain and Giuliani continue to crash-and-burn, they might well be able to nominate a real donkey and win.

By: James E. Powell

James E. Powell — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 02:49:40 +0000

This is a no-shit, big deal win for Obama. I am an Edwards guy, but Obama would be my second, so I can deal.

I would not want to be one of Clinton’s close advisers tonight. Check that, I would do it if only to hear what they say.

The cable chimps are throwing dirt on various campaigns; they’ve been doing it pre-emptively all day.

I would really like to see all three stay in the race until Feb 5, if only because I would like my vote to matter in a primary for the first time in my nearly 53 years.

By: Diamond LeGrande

Diamond LeGrande — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 02:17:44 +0000

Huckabee by 13%? Correction, this really hurts Romney.

I can’t wait to talk to my wingnut father. Huckabee embarasses him.

By: Diamond LeGrande

Diamond LeGrande — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 00:55:57 +0000

MSNBC has its last poll as Democrats: Obama-Edwards-Clinton, and Rethugs: Huckabee-Romney-McCain/Paul/Thompson (these three are too close to call)-Giuliani. If they finish as such, for the Democrats, Obama and Edwards get a boost, but Clinton is still probably the frontrunner. For the Republicans, a finish like this kills Thompson, sullies Giuliani (though, since he never gave a damn about Iowa anyways, doesn’t change his position too much), hurts Romney a bit, helps Huckabee and Paul, and makes New Hampshire do-or-die for McCain.