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10:35 : CNN reports that Chris Dodd is dropping out
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10:24 : On a personal note, as a black man in America the decisive victory of Barack Obama in a state with Iowa’s racial makeup, the following seems appropriate:
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10:06 : Ron Paul more than doubled Giuliani with a respectable 10% showing
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9:54 : 1,640 precincts in, 37.15% for Obama – Clinton 29.6, Edwards 30
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9:50 : Flashback to Dec ‘07: "Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney said yesterday that in order to win the White House he needs to win both New Hampshire and Iowa." Whoops.
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9:39 : Looks like those young voters turned up. Good.
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Fired Up. Ready to Go.
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FEAR ENDS. HOPE BEGINS. BARACK OBAMA WINS IOWA CAUCUS!
- 9:23 : NBC, CNN, Fox project Obama wins Iowa
- 9:20 : 1,262 precincts, Obama at 35.06%
- 9:16 : Scene from the GOP Mike Huckabee frontrunner’s HQ…:
In an unusual expression of faith at a political party headquarters, supporters are standing in circles, holding hands and offering prayers in the middle of the Huckabee ballroom. They appear to be families with adults and children standing together. This is happening amid the piped in rock music, media standups and giant screen coverage.
- 9:14 : 1,139 precincts, Obama at 34.84%
- 9:06 : 943 precincts, Obama now up 34.09%
- 9:02 : Mitt Romney spent so much money in Iowa, and got his rear kicked up and down Iowa. Pwned!
- 9:00 : Who will sop up Hugh Hewitt’s tears? He was spectacularly wrong. Again.
- 8:50 : Fox forecasts a Huckabee win by 13%
- 8:27: 103 precincts, Edwards with 36.15%
- 8:22 : 58 precincts, Edwards leads 37.42%
- 8:18 : There’s almost no updates on the Iowa GOP site…
- 8:16 : 24 precincts, Edwards leads with 37.87%
- 8:12 : With 8 precincts in, Sen. Clinton now has the lead.
- 8:07 : Dem caucus results are here. 3 precincts in, with 48% for Edwards
- 8:01 : Big turnout reported in one precinct. That would favor Obama, I’m guessing.
- 7:56 : This is news? "NBC: Entrance polls suggest Clinton and Obama lead other Democrats among caucus-goers, while it’s a Huckabee-Romney race on GOP side."
- Reader predictions are here, mine were the following:
Democrats
1. Edwards
2. Obama
3. Clinton
4. Biden
5. Dodd
6. RichardsonRepublicans
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Giuliani
4. Thompson
5. McCain
6. Tancredo(I now think Dodd could move up to #4 though, and I think Ron Paul and McCain could get the #3-4 spots)
- Salon has a roundup of activist/celebrity/blogger opinions on the race, my endorsement of Sen. Obama is included…
MSNBC has its last poll as Democrats: Obama-Edwards-Clinton, and Rethugs: Huckabee-Romney-McCain/Paul/Thompson (these three are too close to call)-Giuliani. If they finish as such, for the Democrats, Obama and Edwards get a boost, but Clinton is still probably the frontrunner. For the Republicans, a finish like this kills Thompson, sullies Giuliani (though, since he never gave a damn about Iowa anyways, doesn’t change his position too much), hurts Romney a bit, helps Huckabee and Paul, and makes New Hampshire do-or-die for McCain.
Huckabee by 13%? Correction, this really hurts Romney.
I can’t wait to talk to my wingnut father. Huckabee embarasses him.
This is a no-shit, big deal win for Obama. I am an Edwards guy, but Obama would be my second, so I can deal.
I would not want to be one of Clinton’s close advisers tonight. Check that, I would do it if only to hear what they say.
The cable chimps are throwing dirt on various campaigns; they’ve been doing it pre-emptively all day.
I would really like to see all three stay in the race until Feb 5, if only because I would like my vote to matter in a primary for the first time in my nearly 53 years.
Obama is still running to the right of Hillary Clinton. That is not a territory that excites me. Edwards/Obama is the best-bet ticket for the Democrats, though if McCain and Giuliani continue to crash-and-burn, they might well be able to nominate a real donkey and win.
Ahem … while I wasn’t perfect (putting Clinton ahead of Edwards, close enough), I have to note with all due humility that I was apparently the only reader to call the Obama victory.
The turn out was much higher than expected, which helped Obama dramatically. I was expecting between 100,000 and 150,000.
However, I think it is still anyone’s game for the three Democrats. Richardson could be going for V.P. with Obama instead of Clinton now.
On the Republicans side, McCain is still alive, even if he ends is fourth place, but he will need to win in New Hampshire. Giuliani is dead, Thompson is dead if he drops to fourth by the end, Ron Paul is going to be a major pain for the Republicans as an Libertarian candidate. Romney is dead if he doesn’t top Huckabee in New Hampshire, and this lost will hurt him. Huckabee needs a second place finish in New Hampshire to maintain his momentum. McCain will take the lead nationally if he wins decisively in New Hampshire, which would be the worst case scenario for the Democrats.
I fully expect the Republican Establishment to go all out for McCain. Their spokes-creatures do not seem thrilled with Huckabee.
Their spokes-creatures do not seem thrilled with Huckabee.
That may be, but the exit polling shows that Huckabee got 73% of those who are “satisfied” or “enthusiastic” about the Bush administration.
They’re already up in arms about Huckabee. He is a huge problem for them. If he’s on the top of the ticket, they’re toast. Independent voters, who are wary of Republicans other than McCain and Paul, will support whatever Democratic nominee in droves, as will some of the Village Idio-er, Republicans. Heck, were this a football game, the Democrats would put Mike Gravel at the top of the ticket to keep the game closer. It’s that bad.
If they go after him the way they went after John McCain in 2000 or the Democrats went after Howard Dean in 2004, it might actually be worse, since that would probably alienate the Religious Right. Either Huckabee or someone similar runs as a third-party candidate and siphons off votes, or the Religious Right stays home. Either case puts a Democrat in the White House, and now they have the Religious Right–about a third of the party–willing to bolt the party. This has been simmering for a couple of years and a hit job on Huckabee could bring it to the boiling point. The Republicans would either have a third of their party in a third party, or its candidates would have to espouse views even closer to those of the Religious Right, thoroughly alienating independent voters.
Their best bet is to have either McCain or Romney surge ahead in New Hampshire so that Huckabee plods away in a distant second or third, and then is handed the VP half to appease him. Doing this is going to be as tricky as hell for them. The Huckabee hicks think they can win the nomination, and I’m not sure they’re wrong anymore.