The election hasn’t begun yet. Not a single vote has been cast. Yet, it looks more and more like the much hyped mayor has a jaw of glass. Today’s NBC/Wall Street Journal poll echoes the other numbers out there indicating that Rudy Giuliani has lost his lead nationally. We’re in the early stages of the stories about Giuliani’s mistress, his corrupt appointee Kerik, and not to mention his icy relationship with his kids. The path to a Democratic presidency goes through Rudy Giuliani.
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I just hope he lasts long enough to kill McCain. They share enough supporters that if one dies the other grows. If neither can finish in the top three in Iowa, on the other hand, it might not matter.
If Romney win in Iowa, which is looking more and more likely again, would give him a clear win New Hampshire, which in turn would give him the nomination.
A Huckabee blowout win in Iowa would give him a boost in a couple other states and Romney might drop enough in New Hampshire to allow McCain to win, which would give him a boost in South Carolina, etc. and he would still be alive for Super Tuesday. That would be bad.
A close Huckabee win in Iowa should mean a Romney win in New Hampshire, which would mean a two man race by Super Tuesday.
(On a side note, I would give those three Iowa scenarios a 30%/20%/40% with a 10% chance of something else happening like Thompson making a show of it and finishing second place.)