http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28467/edwards_is_top_presidential_contender_in_missouri

New poll shows Giuliani retook his lead in Missouri, but it is still within the margin of error.

With a Clinton vs. Giuliani contest I would place the 8 states like this…

Clinton: Oregon, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire

Giuliani: Missouri, Nevada

Mixed: Ohio, Florida

I actually do box office analysis for a living, but politics is the same game. I’m addicted to numbers and love analyzing trends, (which is why I had a better than 90% accuracy last weekend at the box office but I haven’t been invited to a party in decades).

When it comes to numbers, nothing generates more statistics than politics.

Here it is again…

Open Left’s map has Nevada as a safe Republican state, however, while the last poll I’ve seen from the state had Giuliani up by 8 points, that was from March. Nationally, there has been a 8% – 10% swing in Clinton’s favor since then.

Here are my list of swing states…

Oregon: McCain actually leads here, but Clinton leads the rest.

Nevada: Not enough polling to know for sure, but Clinton should be competitive.

Missouri: Polls are giving mixed messages here, but Clinton should have a slight, slight advantage.

Tennessee: Thompson would win his home state easily, but the Clinton can beat the rest by varying margins

Ohio: I’ve seen polls that have Giuliani ahead by the narrowest of margins, but others have Clinton ahead by more than the margin of error

Florida: See Ohio

Pennsylvania: Clinton has an advantage here, but it will be close enough for the Republicans to spend big bucks here.

New Hampshire: Romney actually leads Clinton here, but I think that has a lot to do with the sheer amount of money he’s spent trying to win the primary here.

(On a side note, I don’t have New Jersey as a swing state. I think the polls will be close enough to encourage the Republicans to spend $10 million here, but they will still lose by 7%.)

There is a small chance that Clinton could sweep all 8 states earning 106 EC votes, and she would only need 19 to win it all. This is nearly Identical to the Open Left Map, with just a handful of states differing. (I while look into Washington State to see if it is truly up for play.)