I’m still dumbstruck by the stupidity of this exercise from Giuliani.
I gave them Utah because I think even if Brigham Young came back to life and endorsed Hillary Clinton, Utah would still go Republican. On the other hand, a Democrat has just as much a shot* at winning Texas as Giuliani does at winning Maryland in his map.
* In this case, the shot is 1 in 10 Kajillion plus 1.
UPDATE: He has WASHINGTON, DC AS A “SWING” STATE FOR CHRISSAKE. DC!!
“Best able to beat Clinton” reminds me of John Kerry’s pitch in 2004, “Best able to beat Bush.”
Damn it! An error ate my post. Arg.
Here it is again…
Open Left’s map has Nevada as a safe Republican state, however, while the last poll I’ve seen from the state had Giuliani up by 8 points, that was from March. Nationally, there has been a 8% – 10% swing in Clinton’s favor since then.
Here are my list of swing states…
Oregon: McCain actually leads here, but Clinton leads the rest.
Nevada: Not enough polling to know for sure, but Clinton should be competitive.
Missouri: Polls are giving mixed messages here, but Clinton should have a slight, slight advantage.
Tennessee: Thompson would win his home state easily, but the Clinton can beat the rest by varying margins
Ohio: I’ve seen polls that have Giuliani ahead by the narrowest of margins, but others have Clinton ahead by more than the margin of error
Florida: See Ohio
Pennsylvania: Clinton has an advantage here, but it will be close enough for the Republicans to spend big bucks here.
New Hampshire: Romney actually leads Clinton here, but I think that has a lot to do with the sheer amount of money he’s spent trying to win the primary here.
(On a side note, I don’t have New Jersey as a swing state. I think the polls will be close enough to encourage the Republicans to spend $10 million here, but they will still lose by 7%.)
There is a small chance that Clinton could sweep all 8 states earning 106 EC votes, and she would only need 19 to win it all. This is nearly Identical to the Open Left Map, with just a handful of states differing. (I while look into Washington State to see if it is truly up for play.)
I would also like to point out that before Bloomberg decided against running for president, Clinton was winning in Texas in a three-way race between here, Bloomberg and Romney. So the Democrats winning in Texas isn’t as bizarre as one might think.
Just curious, Stowbridge; Do you do this stuff for aliving? You always seem to have the pulse of the latest polls.
“Just curious, Stowbridge; Do you do this stuff for aliving? You always seem to have the pulse of the latest polls.”
I actually do box office analysis for a living, but politics is the same game. I’m addicted to numbers and love analyzing trends, (which is why I had a better than 90% accuracy last weekend at the box office but I haven’t been invited to a party in decades).
When it comes to numbers, nothing generates more statistics than politics.
Quick update…
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28467/edwards_is_top_presidential_contender_in_missouri
New poll shows Giuliani retook his lead in Missouri, but it is still within the margin of error.
With a Clinton vs. Giuliani contest I would place the 8 states like this…
Clinton: Oregon, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire
Giuliani: Missouri, Nevada
Mixed: Ohio, Florida
So, what, you’re the Movie Fone guy? =)