Sen. Clinton has a healthy 43% in the CNN/WMUR poll. That’s 23 ahead of Obama and 31 over John Edwards. The only chance either one of them has is to win Iowa and try and use that as a launching pad. She can survive a second or third place showing there, but the numbers seem to say they can’t going into the big state primaries soon after NH.
Howard Dean had the lead in New Hampshire right up to the night he lost in Iowa.
I am not saying “It’s still early” because it’s not early. All I’m saying is that things can change very quickly.
I don’t think there’s a true comparison to Dean as frontrunner vs. Sen. Clinton. Neither the candidate nor the team are as green.
I’m with Ollie. Watching Hillary on the five news shows this past Sunday, including the pwning of FOX and Chris Wallace, she needs to make a HUGE, cataclysmic mistake to fail in either NH or Iowa.
So far, her campaign has only had a couple missteps in two years. And they’ve covered well and look very strong right now.
“she needs to make a HUGE, cataclysmic mistake to fail in either NH or Iowa.”
Mrs. Clinton, please do not YELL in New Hampshire!!!
Damn it. Wrote a long post and an error destroyed it.
Shorter version…
If Edwards wins in Iowa, it won’t boost him enough to win in New Hampshire.
If Obama wins in Iowa and Edwards drops out and endorses him, (highly unlikely), he might still not win New Hampshire.
If Obama wins Iowa and New Hampshire, he could still lose Super Tuesday as Hillary Leads in almost all states, usually with more support and Edwards and Obama combined.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2007/Pres/Maps/Sep21.html