Oliver Willis

2005:

President Bush, flanked on both sides by servicemen in fatigues, began a speech on terrorism and the war in Iraq on Friday with a few thank-yous to Virginia leaders with front-row seats, including Sen. George Allen (R) and Rep. Thelma D. Drake, the local GOP congresswoman. Even the mayor — a Democrat — was acknowledged.

One politician who was nowhere near Chrysler Hall to wave to what would seem to be a friendly crowd was Jerry W. Kilgore, the Republican candidate for governor, who is in a tight race with Lt. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D).

2006:

President Bush shuttled into Maryland last night to help the state Republican Party raise more than $1 million for a number of high-profile 2006 races, but only one of the state’s two marquee Republican candidates joined him.

Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. stood on a riser shoulder to shoulder with the president, but the party’s leading candidate for an open U.S. Senate seat in Maryland, Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele, was absent. Steele had a scheduling conflict, campaign spokesman Doug Heye said.

2006:

Senate candidates DeWine of Ohio, Kennedy of Minnesota and Steele of Maryland avoid appearances with Bush.

In 2008, there will be a sitting Republican president with an approval rating ranging between probably 25-32% percent. In many ways the election will be the fork in the road 2004 should have been: stay the course or change direction. In order to garner their party’s nomination, Republicans have pandered to the base by essentially endorsing a continuation of Bush’s strategy in Iraq. It is a course of events violently opposed by Democrats and now Independents. The Republican party is going to have a George Bush problem, I think.

Bush dragged down candidates across the country in 2006, leading many Republican incumbents to avoid the president at all costs lest they be photographed with him and the image used in campaign ads. How will the Republican party deal with George W. Bush in 2008? He will be very visible as the sitting president, will the nominee campaign with him? Will the nominee be prepared for questions as to why he doesn’t want to campaign with the president? What will the Republican base think if the president they still support is shunned by the party’s nominee? And if Bush does campaign with the nominee, how will they possibly argue with a straight face that they represent anything of a change in direction if they’re shaking hands and kissing babies with the unpopular George W. Bush?

At the Republican convention at least one night is going to have the president speaking as a keynote speaker. At the Democratic convention in 2004, the last sitting Democratic president, Bill Clinton, gave a great speech that some said overshadowed the nominee’s words. Regardless, it was a net positive to have a well-liked president up there with the nominee. But in Bush’s case, he’s likely to suck all the life out of the room for the GOP. They can’t have him not speak, but when he does speak they will not be able - again - to separate themselves from him. As Sen. Clinton has shown in her first campaign ad, despite whining from the other side, this election will very much involve questions about George W. Bush.

People think the country is on the wrong track. George Bush has been the driver of us onto that track, and the Republican nominee will be widely seen as being on the same track. It will truly be an accomplishment to convince voters who don’t like Bush to vote for the man who will do the same job.

Frankly, I think the likelihood is slim to none that America will do that.