Giuliani Time!

1:29 pm EST March 3rd, 2007 | News | 7 Comments

I refuse to put much stock in these horserace polls considering how far we are away from the primaries, let alone the general election, but it’s kind of funny that Giuliani has this huge lead over Romney and Rudy GiulianiMcCain when Republican voters don’t know diddly about him.

Still, most registered Republicans are not familiar with Giuliani’s positions on key social issues: 34 percent of all Republican voters polled and 38 percent of social conservatives are aware he is pro-choice on abortion. And 51 percent of all Republican voters and 49 percent of social conservatives aren’t sure where he stands on the issue. On gun control, just 17 percent of all Republican voters polled and 19 percent of social conservatives are aware he’s a supporter of gun control. Sixty-seven percent of Republican voters polled (66% of social conservatives) aren’t sure of his stand. And 16 percent of all Republican voters polled and 15 percent of social conservatives are aware that Giuliani opposes a constitutional amendment that would ban same-sex marriage; (70% overall and 72% of social conservatives aren’t aware of his position).

I’m not one of those who believes this will actually completely kill Giuliani in the GOP nomination process – they’ve shown a clear preference for being dominated by the most “butch” candidate, and that’s Giuliani right now. But on the flip side, should Giuliani be the Republican nominee I don’t think there’s much of a chance for there to be the kind of turnout among base voters that helped the Republicans so much in 2000, 2002 and 2004. And the GOP needs them now more than ever, as independents have begun re-aligning with Democrats after their heavy petting with the RNC in 2004. i could see the pro-war and big business factions easily dropping in lockstep behind Giuliani – he’s one of their own – but conservative evangelicals who saw jihad in the fight against John Kerry are going to be hard to rev up in favor of a thrice-divorced Italian social moderate from New York (with an estranged relationship with his children) no matter what the 9/11 myth is.

There’s a better than 50-50 chance that the independent vote will split in 2008, with a slight bias towards the Democrat. The Democratic base is now even more certain that the only way to make progress on their major issue – Iraq – is to elect a Democratic president to lead the House and Senate. Even if the candidate is Sen. Clinton, the most “hawkish” of the front runners, we’re more enthused than the GOP base.

I certainly count myself among those who thought Giuliani did an admirable enough job of leadership on 9/11 (of course that’s proportional since the president took a good 216 hours before he showed any and it was downhill from there), but I think I’m also with the majority of folks who say that it, combined with his shady business dealings and lack of character judgment (Bernard Kerik is Giuliani’s echo of Harriet Miers and Michael Brown) doesn’t remotely qualify him to be president, especially after this most recent disaster.

WEASEL MOMENT: Or, I could be wrong.

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7 Responses to “Giuliani Time!”

  1. Mike says:
    March 3, 2007 at 1:54 pm

    The biggest motivator for the “Republican base” will be Hillary Clinton, if she is nominated.

    We may see the beginnings of “yellow dog Republicans” if that happens.

  2. Oliver Willis says:
    March 3, 2007 at 1:55 pm

    The problem with the Hillary Hate movement is that it only goes so far and that the conservative base will overreach into the personal stuff and help her (there’s historical precedent for that).

  3. Diamond LeGrande says:
    March 3, 2007 at 2:35 pm

    True. The Right hates her husband almost as much and its hatred of him eventually increased his popularity.

    I still think the Right, with a few chosen words and then silence from Giuliani (the second part is hard for Rudy to do), will ignore Giuliani being gay- and abortion-friendly. Again, Reagan was a Hollywood divorcee, Dick Cheney has not disowned his lesbian daughter. If it sees Giuliani can win — and of the Republican candidates, he’s the only one I think who can — it will proclaim its support for Giuliani, make a few big-tent-Republican comments and be done worring about his tolerance.

    Power is the Right’s only goal. Power for power’s sake. If the way to get power is to become a group of Satan-worshipping gays who serially abort all babies, the Right would do that.

  4. Steve M. says:
    March 3, 2007 at 2:37 pm

    Giuliani’s going to win and win big, which scares the hell out of me. Think Republicans won’t be motivated to vote for him? Let me quote Matt Stoller:

    Don’t fall for the nonsensical idea that the right-wing decides their contest based on issues, or has any principles that we would recognize. To them, it’s all about demonstrating a tribal authoritarianism. Giuliani does this.

    Exactly. And then, in the general, he’ll be sold as a “moderate” — and he already has incredibly high numbers among indies and Democrats.

    I fear this train can’t be stopped.

  5. Richard W. Crews says:
    March 3, 2007 at 3:14 pm

    The top Republican prez candidates, Giuliani, McCain, and Gingrich have flip/flopped through so many wives/mistresses/divorces that of course there’s room for a Mormon.

    Guiliani only looked good next to bush’s disgusting display. Bush was struck dumb on a stool, then hid down a bunnyhole. Giuliani put his disaster headquarters st the disaster, and when it fell down, he had nowhere to go! So he wandered around, looking good.

  6. Oliver Willis says:
    March 3, 2007 at 4:16 pm

    Here’s the thing – getting out the GOP vote only gets them about 46% of the way. They need independent moderates to win like in 04. Of the GOP candidates, the appeal to moderates is probably McCain, Giuliani, Romney in that order. No matter who the Dem candidate is, I believe we’ve got an advantage in moderates – in order of appeal: Obama, Edwards, Clinton. No matter what it will be close (duh) but I think we’ve got enough of an edge in moderates to win – in other words a return to the ’92-00 pattern.

    I don’t see the evangelical base, on the other hand, coming out for any of their candidates the way they did in 2004. In many ways the spectre of evangelical southerner George W. Bush versus northeastern liberal Vietnam opponent John Kerry was the perfect storm. Sure, they don’t base their primary choices on checklists in the way liberals do too often, but in the general election the motivation to work gets people voting. Assume on election day it’s Obama vs. Giuliani. How much more enthusiastic will liberals be to vote for the first black president (or Hillary as the first woman president or Edwards as an unabashed progressive populist) than conservative Christians will be to vote for Rudy Giuliani? Factor in the clear sentiment across the board in favor of Democrats in a post-Iraq, post-Katrina America and you’ve got the reason why people like me are – stupidly of course – quite optimistic about next year.

  7. Emmett Grogan says:
    March 4, 2007 at 11:36 am

    Remember that it was Democrats who elected Giuliani on the Liberal Party ticket when he defeated Dinkins by a very thin margin.
    He will run to the center as the leader of The Party of Order. Write off the ultra-right, pick up centrist white Democrats. See the film “Giuliani Time”dvd and read “Grand Illusion” by Wayne Barrett.