So I’m thinking of the GOP field and which candidate scares me the most – right now – as a Dem, and least.
Least Scariest: Giuliani. I would almost love him getting the nomination. With Rudy, it’s almost a case of not throwing Br’er Rabbit into the briar patch. A New York city mayor with a hot temper, three marriages (one of them to a cousin), shady business dealings up the wazoo, and a horrible judge of character (Bernard Kerik)? No, Br’er Bear, don’t throw me in that thar birar patch! I still don’t see how his social positions make it through the GOP process with its fealty to the religious far right, but it’s almost worth it to hope that they give him a pass.
Kinda Scary: Romney. Has the good looks and the slick tongue to make a go of it, but already the template is being drawn for a John Kerry style flip-flop caricature. Also has shady business skeletons in his closet, and his one term at governor was essentially a mulligan – so much so that Massachusetts picked a Democratic governor as his sucessor after a string of Republican ones. (Will people start picking up on the fact that his first name is really “Willard”? That’s got “Felix” written all over it.)
Scariest: McCain. The base doesn’t love him, but still way too many Democrats and independents do. For as wrong as he is and continues to be about Iraq, his Vietnam service seems to get him a pass. Of all the GOP candidates, he’s the strongest against a Dem and will require the most resources and work to take down.
Overall, I’m about 62% sure right now (I reserve the right to flip flop on that as time goes by) that the next president will be a Democrat, thanks in large part to Bush/GOP fatigue (Iraq, Katrina) as well as a slight shift towards the Dems in the public consciousness as well as enthusiasm for the Dem field (Clinton, Obama, Edwards and maybe maybe maybe Gore).
Guiliani is the scariest. Romney isn’t worth a mention. His campaign exists only in the minds of the Weekly Standard crowd. Bush championing McCain’s doomed troop increase is the best way Bush can say “Screw you” to McCain.
If it smells power, the Right will ignore Rudy’s transgressions so long as he talks a good game. Reagan, whom the Right fellates (and literally in some cases, I have no doubt), was divorced and a former Screen Actors’ Guild president.
Giuliani is an authoritarian ass who will fire anyone who disagrees with him. He could win the GOP nomination because of that.
CS – was listent to Air America while driving this afternoon and heard some discussion on Giuliani’s hotheadedness and willingness to fire anybody who disagrees with him. Thought occurred to me that a national scale presidential campaign for someone like this could well turn into the Katherine Harris Follies Part II. “Tonight on CNN, as Giuliani fired his third campaign manager this week, we have interviews with a dozen staffers that have also resigned in disgust…”
McCain will get a pass from much of the public on Iraq because it is very likely that his son Jimmy will be serving in al-Anbar before the end of the year.
Giuliani is the hardest to figure because despite his weakness with the conservative base in a general election, his potential strength in the northeast (NY, NJ, CT, PA) puts any dem nominee in a tough spot.
“Thought occurred to me that a national scale presidential campaign for someone like this could well turn into the Katherine Harris Follies Part II.”
But the media would report that has him being decisive and a strong leader.
I honestly believe the Dems biggest opponent this election cycle is the media and not the Republic Party.
Please continue to underestimate Giuliani. It will make it that much easier for him to beat Obama.
I think you underestimate Giuliani as well.
Also, don’t let McCain get a pass on Iraq because of his Vietnam credentials. The Republicans sure didn’t give Kerry a pass. We have to tie Iraq around his neck and choke him with it!
No, Br’er Bear, don’t throw me in that thar birar patch!
It was Br’er Fox who chucked the rabbit into the briar patch.
Your point stands undiminished, the error notwithstanding.
I’m not underestimating any of them. Any GOP candidate will be formidable with a determined GOP and a pliant media on their side. I just say, of the options, Giuliani will be the least tough. All tough, but Rudy less so.
Giuliani will be by far the toughest. Can run convincingly toward the middle, all the time shrieking “9/11! 9/11!” to stir up the base. Both aspects will have the Broderistas creaming in their jeans. He’s also not going to be blamed for Iraq, unlike McCain. And not one Republican alive will give a crap about his personal history–he’s much more likely to install a police state than anyone else, and that’s way more important to them.