Comments on: Heads Explode http://www.oliverwillis.com/2006/11/06/heads-explode/ Like Kryptonite To Stupid Mon, 22 Mar 2010 10:20:02 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Daniel DiRito http://www.oliverwillis.com/2006/11/06/heads-explode/#comment-48778 Daniel DiRito Tue, 07 Nov 2006 01:16:43 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=3082#comment-48778 My own speculation is that the race isn't as close as the four oldest polls indicate but the Democratic advantage isn't as large as the three most recent polls would suggest. I've always suspected some narrowing of the Democratic lead as unsatisfied Republicans come to the conclusion that they will hold their nose and support the GOP candidate...primarily based upon fears that Democratic control of the Senate might jeopardize future Supreme Court appointments...which better explains the close Senate races in contrast to the growing evidence of Democratic strength in House races. I can't recall a time when concerns about the make up of the Supreme Court were more prevalent and I cannot find a better explanation for the disparate polling information that seems to show Democrats doing very well in contested House races while the Senate races seem to be tightening...and some of these Senate races actually appear to be trending Republican. Supporting the possibility that the Supreme Court consideration can explain voter differences between the House and Senate races would be the argument that there is clear voter opposition to the war in Iraq and a desire to impose some accountability on the Bush administration...and that would be in the form of a Democratic House. Historically, in elections where the House switches control from one party to the other, the Senate also follows suit. Current polling in the individual Senate races seems to indicate that this election could defy that historical trend. I would argue that this may well happen based upon voter concerns about Supreme Court appointments which may lead enough swing voters to vote against their GOP House candidate while still supporting their GOP Senate candidate. After all, it is the Senate that must approve Supreme Court appointments and voters may still favor conservative appointments...especially if one considers the opposition to same-sex marriage and a general belief that the Democratic Party is against any limitations on abortion rights. In other words, if voters want their unhappiness with the war in Iraq to be heard while still endorsing the social issues they seem to favor, the best solution would be to elect a Democratic House and maintain a Republican Senate. Read more poll analysis here: <a href="http://www.thoughttheater.com/2006/11/attempting_to_decipher_the_polls.php" rel="nofollow">www.thoughttheater.com</a> My own speculation is that the race isn’t as close as the four oldest polls indicate but the Democratic advantage isn’t as large as the three most recent polls would suggest. I’ve always suspected some narrowing of the Democratic lead as unsatisfied Republicans come to the conclusion that they will hold their nose and support the GOP candidate…primarily based upon fears that Democratic control of the Senate might jeopardize future Supreme Court appointments…which better explains the close Senate races in contrast to the growing evidence of Democratic strength in House races.

I can’t recall a time when concerns about the make up of the Supreme Court were more prevalent and I cannot find a better explanation for the disparate polling information that seems to show Democrats doing very well in contested House races while the Senate races seem to be tightening…and some of these Senate races actually appear to be trending Republican. Supporting the possibility that the Supreme Court consideration can explain voter differences between the House and Senate races would be the argument that there is clear voter opposition to the war in Iraq and a desire to impose some accountability on the Bush administration…and that would be in the form of a Democratic House.

Historically, in elections where the House switches control from one party to the other, the Senate also follows suit. Current polling in the individual Senate races seems to indicate that this election could defy that historical trend. I would argue that this may well happen based upon voter concerns about Supreme Court appointments which may lead enough swing voters to vote against their GOP House candidate while still supporting their GOP Senate candidate.

After all, it is the Senate that must approve Supreme Court appointments and voters may still favor conservative appointments…especially if one considers the opposition to same-sex marriage and a general belief that the Democratic Party is against any limitations on abortion rights. In other words, if voters want their unhappiness with the war in Iraq to be heard while still endorsing the social issues they seem to favor, the best solution would be to elect a Democratic House and maintain a Republican Senate.

Read more poll analysis here:

http://www.thoughttheater.com

]]> By: StarkyLuv http://www.oliverwillis.com/2006/11/06/heads-explode/#comment-48777 StarkyLuv Tue, 07 Nov 2006 00:02:54 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=3082#comment-48777 The final CNN poll have Dems up 20% Don't read the polls...VOTE!!! The final CNN poll have Dems up 20%

Don’t read the polls…VOTE!!!

]]> By: Dugger http://www.oliverwillis.com/2006/11/06/heads-explode/#comment-48776 Dugger Mon, 06 Nov 2006 20:42:23 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=3082#comment-48776 Hell, That was a good one PD. Hell, That was a good one PD.

]]> By: PD100 http://www.oliverwillis.com/2006/11/06/heads-explode/#comment-48775 PD100 Mon, 06 Nov 2006 19:45:30 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=3082#comment-48775 <i>I didn't know an entire network could grit its teeth.</i> Sure. All ten of them. I didn’t know an entire network could grit its teeth.

Sure. All ten of them.

]]> By: Nimrod Gently http://www.oliverwillis.com/2006/11/06/heads-explode/#comment-48774 Nimrod Gently Mon, 06 Nov 2006 19:23:54 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=3082#comment-48774 I didn't know an entire network could grit its teeth. I didn’t know an entire network could grit its teeth.

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