’)I’m not a big believer in the generic ballot number, with regards to control of the House/Senate because it does come down to your local district. But I thought this graph was interesting:
Pew:
The Gallup Organization has tracked voter preferences in House races for more than half a century, and its final midterm election polls have consistently paralleled actual election results. Indeed, on average, the final Gallup Poll has been within 1.1% of the actual vote. Similarly, surveys by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press (as well as its predecessor, the Times Mirror Center for the People & the Press) have consistently shown that the generic ballot closely tracks election results.2 For example, in 1994 both the Pew and Gallup surveys found a Republican majority in the popular vote for the first time in more than 40 years, foreshadowing that year’s GOP takeover of the House.
During the last midterm elections, in 2002, the generic ballot was again on-target. Averaging four major public polls conducted in the final days before the election produces party vote totals very close to the actual election two-party results. The average Republican share of the vote in the four polls was 51.5%, within a point of the 52% Republicans received on Election Day. Although some polls were closer to the actual results than others, the Election Day vote totals were within the margin of error of all four surveys.
The current average seems to be at about +18 Democratic. Even if you assume that George Soros, Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi and the Liberal Media put the screws to the pollsters and you cut that number in half, it still says +9 Dem.
Look, maybe we’ll lose. Maybe it’s all for naught. Maybe Karl Rove does, in fact, have voodoo. But besides Hugh “Harriet Miers Will Be The Awesomest Supreme Court Justice Evarrr” Hewitt, I cannot find a shred of evidence to fan the flames of my pessimism (2000-present).
Maybe Karl Rove does, in fact, have voodoo.
Not since New Orleans.
A this point, if nothing Earth shaking happens from now till Tuesday and the Dems still lose, I would assume someone was cheating.
“I would assume someone was cheating
Because searching for a reason based on evidence would be too difficult.
I’m hoping that Democrats win as well. I don’t assume much.
At this stage, it’s difficult to see the Dems not winning Congress at least. Although I do wonder at the effect, if any, of this Fox News documentary about the Threat of Radical Islam that they’re showing twenty-seven times over the weekend.