Macaca Implosion?

12:49 am EST October 31st, 2006 | Uncategorized | 3 Comments

A third survey, this one from CNN, shows Jim Webb with the lead in Virginia. This eerily sounds like last year in Virignia all over again, where the Republican base cheered Jerry Kilgore’s harsh and negative attacks on Tim Kaine, but the voters thought they were over the line and moved towards Kaine.

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Election Prediction Thread

11:57 pm EST October 30th, 2006 | Uncategorized | 11 Comments

Time to show how amazingly wrong one human being can be. Post yours in the comments.

House: +16 Dems

I have no idea how to truly gauge this. I’m not near any of the races, and damned if I can predict the voting habits of people. I feel like as unorganized as the Dems are, and as inept as they’ve been at the basics of political strategy, the perfect storm of an unpopular president and party in its sixth year will throw the congress to the Dems. I hope for a wave, but I’ll hedge my bets and go for just a really strong pipe that gives the Dems a close majority. I think that while 2004 was demoralizing, Democratic voters are way more enthusiastic than in 2002 when the party leaders – Daschle and Gephardt – had just signed off on going to war without any real debate on the issue. Whatever faults they may have, Reid and Pelosi (and Dean) have not sold the base down the river – which may be the exact sentiment felt on the right (how craptacular would you feel if you campaigned like hell for Bush in ’04 to stop the gays from getting married and the minute he got re-elected he knifed you in the back?). The con bloggers keep trying to whip up some backlash (pushing their theories of the insidious conspiracy between Democrats, pollsters, and the media – they forgot to blame the Joooooos, ask Pat Buchanan), but I think many Republican and conservative voters are tired of pulling George Bush’s ass out of the fire.

Senate: +5 Dems

Minnesota: Kloubchar d. Kennedy
No reason why, just seems that way.

Pennsylvania: Casey d. Man On Dog Santorum
HALLELUJAH.

Maryland: Cardin d. Steele
Double digits.

Montana: Tester d. Burns
Senator Buzzcut

Arizona: Kyl d. Pederson
Seems to have lost his forward momentum

Connecticut: Lieberman d. Lamont
Bringing home the bacon trumps the Iraq War

Michigan: Stabenow d. Bouchard
Romp city

New Jersey: Menendez d. Kean
Blue state

Rhode Island: Whitehouse d. Chaffee
Blue state

Ohio: Brown d. DeWine
Stick a fork in him and the Ohio GOP

Washington: Cantwell d. McGavick
Blowout

Tennessee: Corker d. Ford
This is one of the toughest ones for me to call. I’m hoping it goes the other way, but I’m from a state south of the Mason-Dixon with a Yankee sensibility and I have a hard time seeing a part of the solid south like Tennessee voting for a black man for senator. Prove me wrong, please.

Missouri: McCaskill d. Talent
A squeaker, probably will come down to a few thousand votes

Virginia: I DON’T KNOW, but slight edge to Macaca
The question is, is Virginia moving from light red to light blue or purple? Webb polls great in Northern Virginia and that’s the region that delivered for Gov. Kaine. You wonder if Macaca’s “Ooooh he wrote a sex scene” was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

Bonus picks:
MD-GOV: O’Malley d. Ehrlich
Maryland’s blue wave

PA-GOV: Rendell d. Swann
OH-GOV: Strickland d. Blackwell
The year of the Black Republican continues to kick ass and take names

I’m ready for all this stuff to be over so we can start talking about the 2008 election.

TRADESPORTS: The GOP contract tanked 4% on Monday, meaning the likelihood of Republicans holding the House is at 30%, which is almost an all-time low. Interestingly the Senate contract took a powder as well, still showing favorably for the GOP at 68% but well below the 80% mark it was just a few hours ago. The Iowa Markets show similar results – Dems get House, GOP gets Senate.

UPDATE: Likely, here’s why – Jim Webb is moving up like crazy.

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Democratic Senate Surge In Progress?

7:22 pm EST October 30th, 2006 | Uncategorized | 3 Comments

Jim Webb up by 2% in Virginia.
Casey up by 11% in Pennsylvania.
Ford up by 5% in Tennessee.
Menendez up by 5% in New Jersey.
McCaskill tied in Missouri.

A trend?

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Q: Despite Karl Rove’s Spinning, How Do You Know The GOP Is In Trouble?

7:08 pm EST October 30th, 2006 | Uncategorized | 9 Comments

A: President Bush was in Sugar Land, TX campaigning for a Republican today. Sugar Land, TX. The Democratic equivalent would be Bill Clinton having to campaign in New York City or Los Angeles.

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Inside Fight

5:03 pm EST October 30th, 2006 | Democrats | 3 Comments

I’m not going to make much of a deal about this until after the election, but this post by Chris Bowers (as well as this one by Matt Stoller claiming some sort of conspiracy to sabotage the Lamont campaign, or this one hitting DC Democrats for not being sufficiently Lamontish) likely foreshadows upcoming fights – should the Dems win the House – within the Democratic party for just how liberal/centrist/progressive the leadership will be going forward.

People who have read this site long enough can probably figure out where I stand on this. But we’ll see how it all shakes out.

 

More Conservative Terrorism

4:36 pm EST October 30th, 2006 | News | 7 Comments

Brad Blog has the details.

A man from Centerville, Ohio, identifying himself as “Sock” Sokolowski has sent a death threat to radio host Stephanie Miller after a recent appearance on Fox “News’” Hannity & Colmes.

The BRAD BLOG has obtained a copy of the profanity-laced letter from Sokolowski which includes a closing salutation claiming that he is “From the right ‘Right”. The letter is posted, unredacted in full at the end of this article.

On her popular Stephanie Miller Show this morning, the radio host telephoned “Sock” — who included his address and phone number with the letter — to confront him live and on air about the letter.

 

Mongomery County: Ground Zero For The Maryland Uprising

1:06 am EST October 30th, 2006 | News | 1 Comment

Montgomery County, Maryland, where I was born and where I currently live is integral to Democratic success in Maryland for the upcoming election. Martin O’Malley and the rest of the Maryland Dems were out in force Sunday to make that happen.

Yesterday’s rally — held before several hundred cheering and sign-waving supporters — was part of an effort to mobilize the Democratic base and to reach out to Democratic voters who do not normally vote in non-presidential election years. O’Malley was joined by all of the statewide candidates, including Cardin, as well as a large roster of county Democrats.

Montgomery County Executive Douglas M. Duncan, appearing with O’Malley for the first time since he dropped out of the Democratic primary for governor in June citing depression, was given a rousing welcome. In his remarks, Duncan criticized a new television ad for Ehrlich that includes disparaging remarks the county executive made about O’Malley before dropping out of the race.

Duncan called the ad an attempt to “mislead the public” into believing he supported Ehrlich. “If they got quotes from me about Ehrlich, you couldn’t print them,” Duncan added.

And this statement from O’Malley sort of says it all:

O’Malley portrayed the governor yesterday as out of touch with the Montgomery electorate, hammering Ehrlich for saying two years ago that multiculturalism is “bunk.”

“Anybody who doesn’t think multiculturalism is good for America, come to Montgomery County,” O’Malley said.

And this bit is just hilarious:

His comments came at an event where O’Malley won the endorsements of two former leaders of Democrats for Ehrlich, a group formed in 2002 to support the then-congressman.

“I am ashamed, embarrassed and feel very foolish for what I did,” said Wayne Frazier, the group’s former chairman.

Okay, fine. Just don’t do it again.

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Somebody Explain This To Me

12:32 am EST October 30th, 2006 | News | 12 Comments

Hugh Hewitt:

political polling has built in Democratic bias

I understand people wanting to discount polls when their guy isn’t ahead – I don’t like when people on my side do it either. There are many variables involved in polling, but the basics of it – “who are you gonna vote for” seem to be pretty cut and dry. So on what basis do Hewitt and other con bloggers who have been echoing him for the past month make their assertion that polls favor Democrats? Did the polls in 2001 where Bush hit 90% have a pro-Democrat bias? Or the polls where he led John Kerry in 2004?

Or, as I am guessing, did the insidious Democrat-MSM plot to show a “Democratic bias” in polling just coincidentally happen when Republicans – Bush specifically – started doing badly in the polls?

In other words, lemme get this straight, polls are clear indicators of popularity and favorability when it shows a positive number for a Republican but the minute it shows a Democrat in the lead it’s clearly a biased and partisan conspiracy.

Ooooookkkkkaaaaayyyyyy.

UPDATE: Please read the comments on Hewitt’s blog where one of his readers uses actual data to refute The Cheerleader’s bogus assertion. It is to laugh!

ALSO: As readers know, I am by no means saying polls mean the Dems can rest on their laurels. As a matter of fact, every Democratic campaign as well as the DNC, DCCC, DSCC, DGA and the rest should be in full on game mode for the next 8 days, working their butts off like they’re down 20 points. But my point is that you shouldn’t discount the anti-Republican sentiment that is now in the majority in this country, especially in states like Maryland. If anything we should take the data the polls are giving us and using that as fuel to fight harder and make the Republican numbers go negative.

Pound ‘em, crush ‘em, stomp ‘em. Run up in the stands and slap dey mama.

 

Michael Steele: Count The Dodges & Flip-Flops

4:35 pm EST October 29th, 2006 | News | 5 Comments

The Cardin campaign details some of the whoppers.

“Dropping in the polls and unable to defend his longstanding support
for President Bush’s agenda, Michael Steele dodged and flip-flopped all
over the map today, leaving Marylanders to wonder whether he has any
real convictions at all,” said Cardin campaign spokesman Oren Shur.
“Marylanders want a Senator who will look them in the eye and tell them
where he stands.  Michael Steele was not straight with the people of
Maryland because he can’t defend his support for the Bush agenda.”

Rep.
Cardin’s strong performance on “Meet the Press” comes on the heels of a
new Washington Post poll released this morning which showed Cardin to
have a double-digit lead over Steele: 54% – 43%.  Rep. Cardin also has
a commanding lead among African American voters: 81% – 14%.

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Hey Media, Ask Michael Steele A Question

4:32 pm EST October 29th, 2006 | News | Comments Off

Michael Steele is push-polling people in Maryland, asking if "unborn babies should be killed for research". Ask him why his desperate campaign is resorting to these sort of gutter tactics, and if he thinks this sort of activity would represent Maryland well in the Senate.

Please, ask.

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