Comments on: Somebody Explain This To Me http://www.oliverwillis.com/2006/10/30/somebody-explain-this-to-me/ Like Kryptonite To Stupid Sat, 11 Feb 2012 06:30:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.4 By: Avedon http://www.oliverwillis.com/2006/10/30/somebody-explain-this-to-me/#comment-47854 Avedon Tue, 31 Oct 2006 16:08:48 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=3011#comment-47854 Well, in a way, they do. Y'see, a poll can be entirely correct in showing that a majority of Americans plan to vote Democratic, and it can be entirely correct, and it still doesn't tell you how many Democratic legislators will end up in Washington, because most of those Democratic votes will be confined to Dem-leaning areas. And since the districting is stacked so that Republicans are over-represented in Congress, the Senate, and the Electoral College, it doesn't really matter if the majority vote for Democrats - you can still end up with a Republican legislature, as happened in in 2004, when more Americans voted for Democratic Senators than for Republicans. And, of course, even if Bush had actually won Florida in 2000, he still had lost the popular vote - more Americans certainly voted for Gore, and yet Bush might still have been elected president. So, there's an extent to which general polls are "biased" simply by telling the truth about voters' preferences, because they don't tell the truth about how those votes will be distributed and affect the actual results in Congress. Well, in a way, they do.

Y’see, a poll can be entirely correct in showing that a majority of Americans plan to vote Democratic, and it can be entirely correct, and it still doesn’t tell you how many Democratic legislators will end up in Washington, because most of those Democratic votes will be confined to Dem-leaning areas.

And since the districting is stacked so that Republicans are over-represented in Congress, the Senate, and the Electoral College, it doesn’t really matter if the majority vote for Democrats – you can still end up with a Republican legislature, as happened in in 2004, when more Americans voted for Democratic Senators than for Republicans.

And, of course, even if Bush had actually won Florida in 2000, he still had lost the popular vote – more Americans certainly voted for Gore, and yet Bush might still have been elected president.

So, there’s an extent to which general polls are “biased” simply by telling the truth about voters’ preferences, because they don’t tell the truth about how those votes will be distributed and affect the actual results in Congress.

]]> By: Something Polish http://www.oliverwillis.com/2006/10/30/somebody-explain-this-to-me/#comment-47853 Something Polish Tue, 31 Oct 2006 00:59:07 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=3011#comment-47853 Hewitt may be right if the Helms-Gandtt contest of 1990 is any indicator (again with that one...). The race was about even the night before the vote, but Helms won by several percentage points. As I recall, there are other examples of the racist asshole vote being underrepresented in polling. This does not bode well for Virginia or Tennesse, obviously. Hewitt may be right if the Helms-Gandtt contest of 1990 is any indicator (again with that one…). The race was about even the night before the vote, but Helms won by several percentage points. As I recall, there are other examples of the racist asshole vote being underrepresented in polling. This does not bode well for Virginia or Tennesse, obviously.

]]> By: St Wendeler http://www.oliverwillis.com/2006/10/30/somebody-explain-this-to-me/#comment-47852 St Wendeler Mon, 30 Oct 2006 23:30:11 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=3011#comment-47852 <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/10/the_story_behind_the_polls.html" rel="nofollow">Try reading this article</a>... they sometimes give higher weighting to Dem vs. GOP respondents to extrapolate where the country is as a whole. Question is whether their weightings are correct. Try reading this article… they sometimes give higher weighting to Dem vs. GOP respondents to extrapolate where the country is as a whole.

Question is whether their weightings are correct.

]]> By: nihilistic_disintegration http://www.oliverwillis.com/2006/10/30/somebody-explain-this-to-me/#comment-47851 nihilistic_disintegration Mon, 30 Oct 2006 18:05:41 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=3011#comment-47851 Another excellent point, Duggster. (Not!) You seem to forget about your Lord and Master's "No Child Left Behind" initiative, which mandates that teachers teach our kids how to take a standardized test, instead of teaching them the fundamentals. But hey, as long as he got a couple photo-ops out of it, all's good. Another excellent point, Duggster. (Not!)

You seem to forget about your Lord and Master’s “No Child Left Behind” initiative, which mandates that teachers teach our kids how to take a standardized test, instead of teaching them the fundamentals.

But hey, as long as he got a couple photo-ops out of it, all’s good.

]]> By: Dr. Anatole Gavage-Huskanoy http://www.oliverwillis.com/2006/10/30/somebody-explain-this-to-me/#comment-47850 Dr. Anatole Gavage-Huskanoy Mon, 30 Oct 2006 18:00:43 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=3011#comment-47850 And don't forget the so-called "doctors" who lay down their abortion blenders only to spew their hideous, anti-Christian hate speech to pollsters, acting on their instructions from the Streisand/Soros Jewish high command against America. And don’t forget the so-called “doctors” who lay down their abortion blenders only to spew their hideous, anti-Christian hate speech to pollsters, acting on their instructions from the Streisand/Soros Jewish high command against America.

]]> By: Dugger http://www.oliverwillis.com/2006/10/30/somebody-explain-this-to-me/#comment-47849 Dugger Mon, 30 Oct 2006 16:23:26 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=3011#comment-47849 At the same time, layabouts, drug users, welfare cases, lesbian witches scheming to murder the unborn, and other "Democratic voters are generally at leisure to spout off their objectionable, out-of-the-mainstream views to anyone who rings them up. What could be more obvious?" Umm. Yeah, thats about it, Quaker. You left out teachers' union members who have time to respond to polls but not to teach our kids the fundamentals. At the same time, layabouts, drug users, welfare cases, lesbian witches scheming to murder the unborn, and other “Democratic voters are generally at leisure to spout off their objectionable, out-of-the-mainstream views to anyone who rings them up.

What could be more obvious?”

Umm. Yeah, thats about it, Quaker. You left out teachers’ union members who have time to respond to polls but not to teach our kids the fundamentals.

]]> By: Bill L. http://www.oliverwillis.com/2006/10/30/somebody-explain-this-to-me/#comment-47848 Bill L. Mon, 30 Oct 2006 14:24:08 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=3011#comment-47848 Have we all forgotten the little nugget from the 2004 elections when exit polls showed Kerry winning but Bush still "won" anyway? It's all about the <a href="http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2005/01/the_reluctant_b.html" rel="nofollow">reluctant</a> Bush voter. Pure <a href="http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit_Polls_summary.pdf" rel="nofollow">crap.</a> Have we all forgotten the little nugget from the 2004 elections when exit polls showed Kerry winning but Bush still “won” anyway?

It’s all about the reluctant Bush voter.

Pure crap.

]]> By: buma http://www.oliverwillis.com/2006/10/30/somebody-explain-this-to-me/#comment-47847 buma Mon, 30 Oct 2006 13:45:40 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=3011#comment-47847 But Diebold has a Republican bias. But Diebold has a Republican bias.

]]> By: Kevin Lawver http://www.oliverwillis.com/2006/10/30/somebody-explain-this-to-me/#comment-47846 Kevin Lawver Mon, 30 Oct 2006 13:07:09 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=3011#comment-47846 Polls have a liberal bias because they require listening... it's obvious, isn't it? Polls have a liberal bias because they require listening… it’s obvious, isn’t it?

]]> By: Nimrod Gently http://www.oliverwillis.com/2006/10/30/somebody-explain-this-to-me/#comment-47845 Nimrod Gently Mon, 30 Oct 2006 10:49:39 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=3011#comment-47845 Reality has a liberal bias. Reality has a liberal bias.

]]> By: Disgusted in St. Louis http://www.oliverwillis.com/2006/10/30/somebody-explain-this-to-me/#comment-47844 Disgusted in St. Louis Mon, 30 Oct 2006 08:19:59 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=3011#comment-47844 Simple answers to simple questions. What does Hugh Hewitt mean. "political polling has built in Democratic bias?" The media, polls, science and facts all have a liberal bias. Simple answers to simple questions.

What does Hugh Hewitt mean. “political polling has built in Democratic bias?”

The media, polls, science and facts all have a liberal bias.

]]> By: Quaker in a Basement http://www.oliverwillis.com/2006/10/30/somebody-explain-this-to-me/#comment-47843 Quaker in a Basement Mon, 30 Oct 2006 06:50:10 +0000 http://improveman.com/ow2008/?p=3011#comment-47843 I do wish Mr. Hewitt had elaborated on this provocative notion. I assume he's relying on the notion that well-to-do Republicans have better things to do with their time than chat with (ugh) pollsters and other riffraff. At the same time, layabouts, drug users, welfare cases, lesbian witches scheming to murder the unborn, and other Democratic voters are generally at leisure to spout off their objectionable, out-of-the-mainstream views to anyone who rings them up. What could be more obvious? I do wish Mr. Hewitt had elaborated on this provocative notion.

I assume he’s relying on the notion that well-to-do Republicans have better things to do with their time than chat with (ugh) pollsters and other riffraff. At the same time, layabouts, drug users, welfare cases, lesbian witches scheming to murder the unborn, and other Democratic voters are generally at leisure to spout off their objectionable, out-of-the-mainstream views to anyone who rings them up.

What could be more obvious?

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