To start with, Republicans lose three Senate seats right off the top:

#1 – Rhode Island – Linc Chaffee has all the qualities necessary for a Republican to win in the Northeast (read “Rockefeller Republican”). So why is he struggling? He’s simply not as canny as, say Arlen Specter. And so, he’s a goner.

#2 – Pennsylvania – Rick Santorum has been behind throughout the entire campaign season. I liked Rick, liked his record. I’ll miss him in the Senate.

#3 – Ohio – This is one state where we may see a true Democrat blowout. Mike DeWine will be history. The GOP has fucked up big time in Ohio and will pay the price. Too bad for Ken Blackwell, who has essntially been grooming himself for the governorship for how many election cycles now?

Virginia – stays GOP. George Allen will indeed be re-elected after this severe test. You gotta weigh the Exhaustion Factor here, and that usually favors incumbents.

Florida – Okay, can Bill Nelson win by a million votes, kinda like Connie Mack’s huge re-election to this seat 12 years ago? Katherine Harris is so alienated from the party, she will have zero impact on the rest of the ticket. She may actually help Charlie Crist win the governorship by a comfortable margin (54-55%).

Georgia – no Senate race here, so I’ll call for a big win by Gov. Sonny Perdue. He’s headed for 60%. The GOP surge that began in 2002 looks to continue in 2006, with Republicans in strong shape to pick up additional statewide positions – Lt Governor and Secretary of State – and perhaps even unseat the longtime Agriculture Commissioner. This tide may even flip those two hotly contested congressional seats held by Democrats Marshall and Barrow.

I haven’t decided yet which Democrat Senate seat will go GOP. Stay tuned.