Time to show how amazingly wrong one human being can be. Post yours in the comments.
House: +16 Dems
I have no idea how to truly gauge this. I’m not near any of the races, and damned if I can predict the voting habits of people. I feel like as unorganized as the Dems are, and as inept as they’ve been at the basics of political strategy, the perfect storm of an unpopular president and party in its sixth year will throw the congress to the Dems. I hope for a wave, but I’ll hedge my bets and go for just a really strong pipe that gives the Dems a close majority. I think that while 2004 was demoralizing, Democratic voters are way more enthusiastic than in 2002 when the party leaders – Daschle and Gephardt – had just signed off on going to war without any real debate on the issue. Whatever faults they may have, Reid and Pelosi (and Dean) have not sold the base down the river – which may be the exact sentiment felt on the right (how craptacular would you feel if you campaigned like hell for Bush in ‘04 to stop the gays from getting married and the minute he got re-elected he knifed you in the back?). The con bloggers keep trying to whip up some backlash (pushing their theories of the insidious conspiracy between Democrats, pollsters, and the media – they forgot to blame the Joooooos, ask Pat Buchanan), but I think many Republican and conservative voters are tired of pulling George Bush’s ass out of the fire.
Senate: +5 Dems
Minnesota: Kloubchar d. Kennedy
No reason why, just seems that way.
Pennsylvania: Casey d. Man On Dog Santorum
HALLELUJAH.
Maryland: Cardin d. Steele
Double digits.
Montana: Tester d. Burns
Senator Buzzcut
Arizona: Kyl d. Pederson
Seems to have lost his forward momentum
Connecticut: Lieberman d. Lamont
Bringing home the bacon trumps the Iraq War
Michigan: Stabenow d. Bouchard
Romp city
New Jersey: Menendez d. Kean
Blue state
Rhode Island: Whitehouse d. Chaffee
Blue state
Ohio: Brown d. DeWine
Stick a fork in him and the Ohio GOP
Washington: Cantwell d. McGavick
Blowout
Tennessee: Corker d. Ford
This is one of the toughest ones for me to call. I’m hoping it goes the other way, but I’m from a state south of the Mason-Dixon with a Yankee sensibility and I have a hard time seeing a part of the solid south like Tennessee voting for a black man for senator. Prove me wrong, please.
Missouri: McCaskill d. Talent
A squeaker, probably will come down to a few thousand votes
Virginia: I DON’T KNOW, but slight edge to Macaca
The question is, is Virginia moving from light red to light blue or purple? Webb polls great in Northern Virginia and that’s the region that delivered for Gov. Kaine. You wonder if Macaca’s “Ooooh he wrote a sex scene” was the straw that broke the camel’s back.
Bonus picks:
MD-GOV: O’Malley d. Ehrlich
Maryland’s blue wave
PA-GOV: Rendell d. Swann
OH-GOV: Strickland d. Blackwell
The year of the Black Republican continues to kick ass and take names
I’m ready for all this stuff to be over so we can start talking about the 2008 election.
TRADESPORTS: The GOP contract tanked 4% on Monday, meaning the likelihood of Republicans holding the House is at 30%, which is almost an all-time low. Interestingly the Senate contract took a powder as well, still showing favorably for the GOP at 68% but well below the 80% mark it was just a few hours ago. The Iowa Markets show similar results – Dems get House, GOP gets Senate.
UPDATE: Likely, here’s why – Jim Webb is moving up like crazy.
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