From the Center for Strategic and International Studies
The number of civilian deaths is way up. No one knows the real total, either for recent killings or the overall death rate. It seems likely, however, that past estimates of total deaths of 30,000 to 40,000 are now at least 10,000-20,000 too low because they rely far too heavily on Iraqi morgue and Ministry of Health data, and media reports. These figures do not cover outlying areas where reporting is far less accurate or comprehensive, disappearances and kidnappings where the body is never recovered, and hidden body dumps in the desert.
The recent estimates of killing have the same limitations, but the UN is certainly far too conservative in estimating that they were 3,149 in June and 14,338 in the first six months of 2006. The counts are too Baghdad-centric, and seem to cover only deaths actually formally reported. They do not cover all deaths even in outlying areas in Baghdad Province, and reporting on other areas is far less comprehensive. Like far too many attack counts, they exaggerate the degree to which civil violence and the insurrection focus on Baghdad, while other areas are peaceful.
Body counts are also only one measure of violence, and anecdotal evidence indicates that sharp rises are taking place in other forms of sectarian and ethnic conflict. These include the kidnappings and disappearances mentioned earlier. They also include massive numbers of wounded, and what data are available indicate that the number of seriously wounded sharply exceeds the number killed. Extortion, crime, intimidation, and blackmail are sometimes simply crime, but are often tied to ethnic and sectarian tension. Protection schemes and payoffs for security are often the rule and not the exception.
Soft ethnic cleansing is reshaping not only Baghdad, a city of at least five million, but many other cities and towns. Forcing families to move their homes, give up their businesses, and to do so without any payment at a time when most are bankrupt is just as divisive as violence. So are the constant series of attacks on professionals, businessmen, doctors, teachers, and other parts of the educated and secular core of Iraqi society. Many leave the country, others relocate to places where they cannot work or participate in civil society.
There’s more at the link.
Also, I remember the neocons gloating that predictions of mass exodus from Iraq in general, and Baghdad in particular never came to pass.
I haven’t heard much about that lately, have you?
I note, in passing, another reference to gross (body) counts. Re my sterling Los Angeles County analysis earlier.
Of course, you’d try to turn the focus back on Iraq. Anything to avoid talking about how the State of Maryland was reputiated.
“Of course, you d try to turn the focus back on Iraq. Anything to avoid talking about how the State of Maryland was reputiated. “
Hooray! Now the state gets back to picking up the tab on healthcare for those who arent making enough at Wal-Mart to buy their own! Steve can then decry it as a form of state sponsored welfare!! Win-win, baby!!
Maybe it’s the stress of Steve having two jobs- being the Walmart greeter by days and scrubbing the floors of peep-show booths by night.
Nah.
“I note, in passing, another reference to gross (body) counts. Re my sterling Los Angeles County analysis earlier.”
Um, idiot, the article is about the impact of the war on Iraqi civilians. In your “sterling” analysis of gross body counts you refuse to consider any reference to Iraqi civilian casualties. Please, tell us why you don’t want to consider the number of civilian deaths in your little comparison?
frame – obviously it’s because Iraqis aren’t snowflake babies. Maybe if we can figure out a way to publicize the plight of Iraqi blastocysts we could get Bush to give a crap about them.
Yes, I’m talking about death and destruction in Iraq as a means to avoid the real elephant in the room: health care.
I’m not dumb enough to be a Republican, clearly.
OT for this post, but it surely does look like we are about to turn the corner in Iraq. This liberal media is obviously objectively pro-terrorist. The innocent life that matters, as our leader asserts, is that of snowflake babies, not Iraqi babies. I can’t figure out why y’all just don’t get that.
Maybe we should institute a draft for Blastocyst-Americans.
“You aren t happy, are you, living in a county that has a higher number of homicides than the US death total in Iraq?”
I love Los Angeles and Los Angeles County which is why I resent your dishonest slamming of my hometown. The fact remains that Los Angeles County is vastly safer than Iraq, 20 times safer to be exact.
So tell me, when are you booking your Christmas vacation to Baghdad?
frame,
You aren’t happy, are you, living in a county that has a higher number of homicides than the US death total in Iraq?
Have they found WMDs in LA county?
Notice how dugger leaves out all the Iraqi deaths in his comparison.
Dugger is being profoundly disingenuous or just plain dumb on this one. L.A.’s homicide rate is a reflection of just the one county where the Iraq murder rate covers the entire country, allowing areas with low death rates to dilute the overall statistic. A more apt comparison would be to weigh Baghdad against Los Angeles. Measured on that scale, Baghdad (100 murders per 100,000)has a homicide rate some 8 times greater than L.A. (13.4 murders per 100,000).
It has been estimated that the actual death rate could be much higher than the stated number when looking outside Baghdad.
More con bullshit.
Have they found WMDs in LA county?
How many IED events have occured in Glendale recently?
Dugger, your comment about LA County has got to be one of the most idiotic things I’ve ever read. Tell, me, oh wise one, how many of those homicides in LA County are the result of an unnecessary U.S. military invasion?
Dugger, I have a few theories about you as to why you don’t understand basic pre-algebra concepts. Tell me which one is right:
1. You are 13 or younger.
2. You were held back three times in school and dropped out after 7th grade.
3. Due to some sort of head injurty (which probably occured while you were doing something illegal), you forgot math.
4. Having the reading comprehension and mathematical understanding of an elementary school student is required to be a conservative.
5. Some combination of the above.
I’m hedging my bets on 5, and the combination being 2, 3, & 4.
I already explained to you why your “observation” is stupid, so I’m not going to bother.
I noticed no one challenged the truth of my statement. Merely the typical shrill name calling. The political entity LA County had more homicides over the same period of time than US deaths in Iraq. You wish so desperately it weren’t true for your entire lives revolve around hatred of Bush and that simple statement requires reflection and consideration of a foreign concept – perspective.
Screach all you wish about ‘rate’, but the lead in to this item was about gross death total in Iraq. Warning: if you choose to argue on this point again, I shall taunt you with the truth, yet again. And don’t make me show you -again- how this ‘war’ is much’, much, much less dangerous than WWII, Korea and Vietnam. Not even close.
“Perspective” – ask your mommy or daddy (well, on this item, I’m your ‘daddy’) what it means.
More Homicides in Democratically-run LA County than US deaths in Iraq. And if you are overly worried about the Iraqi-only death total, good for you. What is that total (the article admits they don’t have a clue) and what would the death total be with Saddam in power?
Dugger , Mommy, make him stop saying things that hurt my brain!
Your argument has already been debunked, Dugger, but feel free to continue to pretend otherwise. As I said, you are falsely equating an entire country with a single county. Try comparing Baghdad to L.A.
Oops, your argument kind of breaks down. And by “kind of,” I mean “totally.”
I really should address Dugger’s attempt to paint Iraq as the sunshine capitol of the world by using the absolute number of U.S. casualties as his crutch. The U.S. has a population of nearly 300 million (or approximately 10-12 million if you just want to consider L.A. county) and Iraq of just over 26 million (or over 5 million if you want to just consider Baghdad). You cannot compare the two with absolute numbers without adjusting for the huge disparity in size. What’s more, by narrowly focusing on U.S. casualties, you paint a severely distorted picture of conditions on the ground. Most Los Angeles residents I know don’t travel in heavily armed groups with limited body armor, armored vehicles, and a Green Zone to retreat to. Nor do they have carte blanche permission to shoot anyone they essentially deem a potential threat. Total casualties in L.A. County have averaged 500 (out of millions) or so for the last few years. The U.S. average death rate in Iraq for the last 3 years has been 630 (out of 132,000). If you use the same “per 100,000″ rate for calculating U.S. casualties, the number is a whopping 2000 (2559 casualties for about 132,000 troops).
How exactly is it that anyone is safer in Baghdad than L.A.?
Screach all you wish about rate , but the lead in to this item was about gross death total in Iraq.
The article isn’t making any statisical comparisons with U.S. areas. Like I’ve said before, both gross numbers & percentage rates are needed to paint an accurate picture for statistical comparisons. You’ll learn this if you decide to give middle school another shot.
Warning: if you choose to argue on this point again, I shall taunt you with the truth, yet again. And don t make me show you -again- how this war is much , much, much less dangerous than WWII, Korea and Vietnam. Not even close.
The vast majority of U.S. deaths weren’t from the war, but from the current “peace-keeping” operation. Unlike your examples above, the U.S. isn’t fighting an active military force, so your comparison kinda falls flat (what a suprise). However, 2500 deaths in 3 years is pretty damn high for a peace-keeping operation.
(well, on this item, I m your daddy )
…are you coming onto me? Sorry, I don’t swing that way.
Mommy, make him stop saying things that hurt my brain!
At least we can agree on this item. How you function in the modern world without even a basic understanding of percentages, I’ll never know.
Oh, you liberals and your “logic”… why do you hate America so much?
oops that should read: (in which Frank and Pedro defended him)
“Warning: if you choose to argue on this point again, I shall taunt you with the truth, yet again.”
Oh, and Dugger, please don’t force us to start a fund raising campaign to buy you a ticket to Baghdad.
We could call it Send a Wingnut to Baghdad. All you’d have to do to get a free two-week vacation to Baghdad is agree to stay entirely outside the Green Zone and refuse all military and security protection. You’d love it! The chance to actually prove that visiting Baghdad is just like visiting Los Angeles County. You’d love it. It would be just like being a tourist in, say, Hollywood. Baghdad and Hollywood actually have a lot in common, check out the ancient Babylonian ruins. Yes, Dugger you could stroll the boulevards of Baghdad, take a cruise down the Tigris, take a day trip to Fallujah. It’d be awesome. Just keep pushing it and the campaign will be on.
Hey, give Dugger credit. He started this train of idiocy claiming that Iraq was safer than Los Angeles County. After much repeated explanation in an early thread (in which Frank and Dugger defender him) all three finally got it through their thick skulls that such a statement was grievously untrue.
Still, as others have pointed out, Dugger, a good way to get perspective is to actually compare things that are comprable. For instance, since US troops in Iraq are essentially serving a police function maybe we should compare US troop deaths to the number of deaths for LA County Sheriffs.
Sadly, seven Sheriffs have died in the line of duty since 2003. A grand total of 83 have died in the line of duty since ….wait for it … 1857. I’m sure I don’t have to remind anyone how many US soldiers have died in Iraq in the last three years.
dugger, the article at the top of this post is about civilian deaths in Iraq. Your posts are irrelevant to the topic.
Bill L and Z,
I have no problem with your putting my comparison into perspective – as long as progressives put the various Iraq death totals (especially US) into perspective. When you (collectively) don’t, I feel free to put forth a very simple, truthful comparison between a well-known Democratic-run US county and Iraq. If you are honest and halfway intelligent, the first thing you will have to admit is that in context of major military actions, Iraq isn’t that dangerous. All wars, are per se dangerous, this one much less so. Also, hopefully, you will admit the civilian Iraqi death total can be and often is politicized and that the enemy is not above doing things to purposefully endanger civilians — so that US progressives can use it as a domestic political weapon. And until you have a reliable estimate and can come up with a reliable indicator of what the death total would be now under an un-removed Saddam, unverified, non-contextual Iraqi totals are meaningless.
Besides, I believe your collective ‘concern’ has zilch to do with deaths of US servicemen or Iraqis and everything to do with discrediting Bush. Otherwise, whree’s the concern for the murdered in LA County? Are they chopped liver?
Dugger, It’s still true, more homicides in Democratic-run LA County than US deaths in Iraq.
Dugger, as I said before in the lieberman thread, the current death totals seem to suggest that at least as many Iraqi civilians are dying now (if not more, since the many missing persons areny counted as deaths yet I think) as there were under Hussein. The Hussein estimate for one year is 12,500 civilian deaths (held power from 1979 to 2003, estimated total of 300,000 deaths, 300,000/24years) and as per iraqbodycount.org, there were a counted total of 12,617 (up 1,300 from the previous year) from March 20th 2005 to March 1st 2006, not even a full year. As I said at the time, given that averages can be tricky indicators, I not necessarily think this means we are making things worse as far as this one indicator goes, but I honestly believe it at least shows us that things arent really getting any better at this point.
Rex,
Question your numbers (more than that died in the Iran/Iraq war alone). I have seeen totals from two to three million deaths that Saddam was responsible for over his lifetime. http://www.dkosopedia.com/wiki/Saddam_the_Mass_Murderer) .
On the other, the Iraq total by IBC is about 40,000.
Saddam 24 years 2M = around 80,000 a year.
Latest war is about 12,000 per year.
That would be a delta of 28K per year if Saddam were still in power.
I also acknowledge estimates vary and methods of counting vary, but it clearly seems to me that the magnitude of difference suggests,as far as deaths are concerned, that the world is much better off with the current situation than with Saddam alive.
I still say perspective is required. The war may or may not be a bad idea, but it is not a bad idea, IMO, because of body count – which looks like it would be worse under Saddam.
…The only reasonable explanation of Dugger’s idiotic response is that he never actually reads our posts. So I’ll try one more time to explain why your magical reasoning is stupid.
1. There are more homocides in L.A. county than there are military deaths in Iraq because there are over at least 100 times as many people living in L.A. County than there are servicemen in Iraq. This is pretty basic stuff you should have learned in middle school.
2. The “war” in Iraq cannot be compared with other wars because the U.S. is acting as a police, and not fighting a opposing country’s military. If the U.S. death toll was due to fighting the former Iraqi army, you would have a point. But for a peace-keeping operation, Iraq’s pretty damn dangerous.
(Wonder how many U.S. soldiers were killed in similar circumstances…)
Besides, I believe your collective concern has zilch to do with deaths of US servicemen or Iraqis and everything to do with discrediting Bush.
Time for the old switcharoo:
Besides, I believe your collective concern has zilch to do with “liberating” Iraqis and everything to do with making Bush look good.
I might take this opportunity to get indignant over you not citing a soucre for your 2mil number, as your link claims only as much as “400,000 alleged victims” and then goes down further, claiming only 290,000 Iraqi citizens have been “disappeared” during Saddam’s reign, but since I cannot seem to find the precise source I used for my 300,000 figure right now I’m thinking I’ll pass for now. Also, considering that the bulk of Saddam’s deaths occurred early in his reign, predominantly in the Anfal and Shia massacres that hit before 1992, the link you provide shows only 50,000-ish civilians for that 11-year period up to his removal, which would be 4500 a year, making the disparity even greater. At any rate the numbers can be and still are kind of confusing at this point, but I seriously dont think theyre an indication of progress. Unless you can site a source for your 2million dead iraqi civilians, which I would be very curious to read. (Presuming it doesnt include deaths from the sanctions and other such inflating numbers)
Los Angeles total homicides:
2000 – 551
2001 – 587
2002 – 658
2003 – 498
2004 – 515
2005 – 433
(approximately 220 homicides have occured in L.A. County so far in 2006, a rate roughly equal to last year)
Avg. since 2000 – 540.33
Avg. since 2003 – 482
monthly avg (including current 2006 totals and assuming a 40 month time span so as to roughly equal the Iraq invasion) – 37
U.S. casualties in Iraq to date: 2559
yearly avg. – 715.14
monthly avg. – 63.97
Am I completely missing something, because even if you allow for the inclusion of civilian deaths in L.A. County while excluding civilian deaths in Iraq (for the whole country or just for Baghdad), the death total in Iraq for U.S. servicemen, on average, is still considerably higher.
I’m not sure how the full scale invasion of a non-aggressor nation already severly weakened by 12 years of sanctions can be compared to WWII, Korea, or Vietnam. Since Bush declared “Mission Accomplished” and stated flatly that the U.S. was “victorious” back in 2003, wouldn’t it be more accurate to call this a bloody occupation (the long predicted aftermath derided by those who insisted it would all cost only a billion or so and we would be showered with flowers and candy) and begin historical comparisons from there?
As for the 2 million deaths under Saddam, is that just executions or does it include wars like the one with Iran or the invasion of Kuwait? The most consistent estimates from outside sources (not Iraqi politicians) puts the number at around 300,000. Iraqi politicians apparently put the number closer to 1 million.
“Am I completely missing something …”
No, Bill, you just aren’t comprehending the full depths of Dugger’s dishonesty. It looks like you are getting your numbers from the LA County Sheriff’s webpage http://www.lacountymurders.com.
The numbers there only include crimes classified as murders which they define as follows:
The numbers do not include total homicides because homicides defined as follows:
http://www.lacountymurders.com/whatis-articles.cfm
So essentially, Dugger is comparing ALL homicides in Los Angeles County, which include manslaughter and criminal negligence, against the deaths of US soldiers in Iraq the preponderance of which meet the legal definition of murder described above. If Dugger compared murder to murder, as opposed to murder to criminal homicide, he would get a different result. Which is, of course, why he prefers to compare apples and oranges.
…well, yeah I am missing that, mostly because I’m not getting involved in the Iraq vs LA argument at all here, and as such an not addressing LA at all really. I’m talking just in terms of Iraqi deaths now vs Iraqi deaths under Saddam as a measure of whether or not things are better for the civilians now than if we had done nothing, as you had sort of requested what the death toll under saddam would have been for the time period of our occupation if we hadnt in fact occupied, and I argued that the two numbers would in fact be comparable as yearly rates.
Also, if youre going to argue that unreported and undocumented LA County deaths help bolster your argument, isnt it possible to also argue that unreported and undocumented Iraqi deaths help to diminish it?
rex,
You are missing something. Your figures do not include the incorporated areas within the county -over which the County sheriff’s office would not have reporting jurisdiction.
Remember everyone, the Iraq war is not a bad idea because of the body count. dugger says so.
rex,
The comprehensive numbers still suggest Iraq is better off now than under Saddam – even if you accept (which I don’t) the inflated 100K estimate for Iraq some are bandying about. And the death rate (or count) for US soldiers in this war is extremely low as comapred to previous wars/near wars.
And what I assert here, w/o context, does not constitute an argument for the war. No more than screaming about the body count w/o context makes a case against it.
Well your numbers on Iraq are still off. Check out the casualty count for Iraq alone in the I
Dugger, can you please show your work? Where are these comprehensive numbers that show that Iraq is better now? As I understand it they have less electricity, less freedom of movement, and at least as many are dying (by my count, if these numbers are severely wrong as you say, please provide a contrary source) as were under Hussein, and thats not even considering the newly found power Al Qaeda has in the nation now that they wouldnt have obtained if not for the war.
My major problem with the whole justification attempts at this point is how can this even be sold to the Iraqi’s? “Well, mortality is as high as before, and we cant really guarantee that youre safe from rape and torture… less access to necessary utilities, plus we got the curfew going… Also we got the terrorists moving in to just do what damage they can, but Ive got good news! You know those people who live in the other side of the country you think are scum-sucking weasels beneath contempt because of their religion? Well the good news is that in the eyes of the law, you’re equal to them, and both hold equal control over how the country’s run!!”
(Though it goes without saying, thats not me being opposed to democracy, thats me presenting why I think the Iraqi people wouldnt be too quick to embrace it)
Iraq is dead:
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article1193108.ece
Well, there is no single all knowing source for deaths as a result of our Iraqi action now or then under Saddam. IBC says about 40K now. Lancet about 100K. The Saddam numbers very more widely. Kos (no amigo de mio) says he’s responsible for about 3M deaths. This site (http://www.moreorless.au.com/killers/hussein.html)
says 2M. I’ve seen as low as 1M. Lets do it this way. Take the difference between both extremes. Thats 70K now or about 30K per year. The 2M figure for Saddam is about 80K. Saddam is over twice as bad.
I concede that the Saddam totals include ‘deaths attributed to Saddam’ – not just Iraq in isolation.
So the delta may not be as strong if we limited Saddam to Iraq only. But I seriously doubt Saddam killed more outside of Iraq than inside. There are many other angles to this argument and apples to apple is very hard to do, but it looks to me like it was worse under Saddam.
Dugger
Dugger: The Stupidity Continues
And his argumentum continues ad nauseam.
WIKI–
Argumentum ad nauseam or argument from repetition or Argumentum ad infinitum is the false proof of a statement by (prolonged) repetition, possibly by different people. This logical fallacy is commonly used as a form of rhetoric by politicians, and it is one of the mechanisms of reinforcing urban legends. In its extreme form, it can also be a form of brainwashing. In common usage the statement “A lie repeated often enough becomes the truth” is often used to allude to the same concept, which self referentially has been attributed diversely to Lenin, Goebbels, Hitler and Stalin among others, when little evidence can be found to support most of these historical figures having said this.
Modern politics is fraught with examples of argumentum ad nauseam, and wide acceptance of many policies and perspectives is driven in part by the endless repetition of slogans. The exercise of argumentum ad nauseam can be widely observed in the distribution of “talking points,” which are collections of short phrases that are issued to members of modern political parties for recitation to achieve maximum message repetition.
This phrase is often misspelled “ad nauseum”.
Did you hear Sadr is making noises about sending guys over to Lebanon to fight the Israelis? Bush’s strategic error continues to compound at the world’s expense. Thanks, Republican idiots!
Bring ‘em on! We have enough forces to handle the security situation.
via Digby:
Number of Iraqis who had access to potable water before invasion: 13 million
Number of Iraqis who have access to potable water, according to the April 2006 SIGIR report: 8 million
Number of Iraqi physicians registered prior to the invasion: 34,000
Number of Iraqi physicians who have been murdered or fled the country since the invasion: 14,000
Infant mortality rate in Iraq: (Middle East average is 37, sub-Saharan Africa average is 105): 102
Average number of daily attacks by insurgents in June 2004: 45
Average number of daily attacks by insurgents in June 2006: 90
Amount requested by the President in his Fiscal Year 2007 budget for democracy promotion in Iraq: 0
Percent of Iraqis who say they are optimistic about their future: 30 percent
According to a recent World Public Opinion poll, percent of Iraqis who approve of a timeline for U.S. withdrawal: 70 percent
Number of Iraqi civilians killed in May, according to data from the Iraqi Health Ministry and the Baghdad morgue: 2,669
Number of Iraqi civilians killed in June, according to data from the Iraqi Health Ministry and the Baghdad morgue: 3,149
Civilian death toll in Iraq in June 2006: 100 per day
Percent of Iraq s professional class that has left the country since late 2003:40 percent
You have to wonder what it would have looked like if it were going badly.>>
The is all thanks to GOP ‘planning’.
Percent of Iraqis who say they are optimistic about their future: 30 percent
I guess the idea of 30% of people being blind to reality is more universal than I thought. We really aren’t so different after all.
(Too easy)
Damn it, Zython! You beat me to it!
These are the questions that freak me out the most:
(To Iraqis) Do you think Iraq is heading in the right direction?
Yes (Shia): 84%
Yes (Sunni): 6%
Do you approve of attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq:
Yes (Shia): 41%
Yes (Sunni): 88%
Looks like we really are going to be caught in the middle of a civil war in which nobody likes us. Thanks, failed Republican foreign policy!