For the first time in a year, just five months before the election, Governor Ehrlich’s approval rating has now dropped to 44% while disapproval has shot up to 51%. This would seem to dovetail perfectly with the electrical rate increase brokered by Ehrlich behind closed doors which the Democratic legislature worked to alleviate (led by Lt. Governor candidate Anthony Brown).
UPDATE: Of course, this would be the day that the Wall Street Journal does a puff profile on Ehrlich that eventually boils down to bashing the Baltimore Sun for not worshipping at Ehrlich’s feet. They peg his approval ratings in the (ludicrous) 55-67% range, when in fact they’ve been around 50% for a while and as I note above, have now dropped to 44%.
Whether Ehrlich will win or not is sort of a look at basic trends. He won in 2002 when the Democrats fielded an extraordinarily bad candidate and Republicans were experiencing high approval ratings, even so Ehrlich barey won (by 4%). Since then, Republican approval ratings have dropped, Maryland voted overwhelmingly Democratic in ‘04 and the Democratic frontrunner looks quite savvy. In a state with a 2-1 Democratic registration, Ehrlich not only needs the GOP + Independent vote like in other states, he needs Democrats in order to win.
