Poll Watching

6:03 pm EST March 17th, 2006 | Politics | 7 Comments

John Hinderaker of Powerline, November 12, 2005: “Rasmussen shows President Bush climbing from his low point in October, to a current approval rating of 46%. That’s his best this month, and, as Rasmussen says, it might be statistical noise. If it’s for real, it’s good news; 46% isn’t great, but it’s well out of the sub-40% danger territory. But, in any event, the upward trend since last month is good news for Republicans.”

Rasmussen Reports, March 17, 2006: “Forty-one percent (41%) of American adults now approve of the way George W. Bush is performing his role as President. That’s just one point above the lowest level ever measured by Rasmussen Reports.”

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7 Responses to “Poll Watching”

  1. Semanticleo says:
    March 17, 2006 at 6:03 pm

    Like fringe beetles Coulter and Malkin, Hinderberger continues to
    evolve into a caricature of ideology. His large stores of gas continue
    to leak what should be flammable, but are rendered inert when
    exposed to fresh air. Instapundit loves him. ‘Nuff said.

  2. buma says:
    March 17, 2006 at 6:03 pm

    Hindlicker has been on a roll lately.

  3. Rounds77 says:
    March 17, 2006 at 7:03 pm

    Rasmussen’s poll results appear to always be higher than other polls when it comes to Bush’s favorability rating. I’ve seen it to be as much as 8 to 10 points higher than Gallup or Time. Do they only poll in Utah or something? Maybe it has something to do with the fact that their question allows 4 options when asked about Bush. One thing that has been consisitent is the fact that the “StronglyDisapprove” category is usually the highest of the 4 options. Just pondering.

  4. Big Gay Al says:
    March 17, 2006 at 9:03 pm

    Rasmussen s poll results appear to always be higher than other polls when it comes to Bush s favorability rating.

    It’s like earning power, it seems. A $50,000 salary in Boise, for example, is the equivalent of $100,000 in New York. Maybe Rasmussen is taking into account the cost of living, tax benefits, etc. in their polls.

  5. elrod says:
    March 17, 2006 at 9:03 pm

    Rasmussen weights their polls to match the party ID of the 2004 race, which final exit polls showed to be even between Republicans and Democrats (some people dispute that exit poll finding, saying that Dems outnumbered Republicans by one point, but the difference is marginal). There is an ongoing debate among pollsters regarding the fluidity of party ID. Some pollsters, like Zogby and Rasmussen, believe party ID is relatively stable. They wait for Pew to come out with their annual massive study (12,000 respondents) in order to determine party ID for that year. Then they weight every poll according to the Pew result. Other pollsters, like Gallup, believe that party ID is very fluid. People switch from Dem to Indie, and Indie to Rep, or vice versa all the time. Thus, when Bush is doing very poorly, more people who thought of themselves as Republicans in, say, November 2004, start to identify themselves as Independents and naturally register their discontent with Bush. Some Indies identify themselves as Democrats to mark their own disapproval of the GOP. This debate is unresolved and quite fascinating. But it accounts for why Rasmussen always polls Bush higher than other polls.

    What’s important is that even with the weighting, only 75 percent of Republicans support Bush, down from around 90 percent a year ago. That alone is more important than the fact that only about 10% of Dems approve of him, or that only 30% of Indies approve.

  6. doug r says:
    March 17, 2006 at 10:03 pm

    Zogby has him at 38%
    Gallup’s got him at 36%.
    CBS has him at 34%
    Pew has him at 33%

  7. Cyberian says:
    March 18, 2006 at 12:03 pm

    John Hindrocket is not stupid. Disgusting, cunning, vicious, calculating, sly, amoral. Not stupid.

    He knows who logs in, and he tries to present a consistent message, even when he knows he’s being disingenuous.

    It’s called “The Limbaugh Model”, after the man who has done more to foster this right-wing “win-at-all-costs” mindset in the base that has so damaged this country.

    As to polls, there’s a reason why Rasmussen is viewed first among GOp pollsters: He gives god results, and is a better measure of the GOP base.

    Rasmussen claims to have predicted the 2004 Election better than any other poling service, and the answer is he did. But ONLY if you neglect to adjust for the 3% solution that gaming e-Voting won for the GOP.

    Once you reduce Bush’s margin by 3%, you end up with a Kerry victory, as multiple exit polls showed,