Peter Daou expertly outlines why the biggest obstacle to Democratic success is the Democratic party. He’s 100% right. I’ve got more thoughts on this later.
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The biggest obstacle to Democrats is the fact that they have once again lined up on the wrong side of history. As in 2002, they will be properly painted as weak on defense and weak on security. Iraq will be in much better shape, the economy is humming, and the Dems are not part of either. Have fun in the minority….again.
Yes, nudnik, Iran-controlled Iraq will be in much better shape. The willingness of the Sunnis to accept the election results shows that the country is well on the path toward stability. Oh wait a minute, the Sunnis want a revote. So do the pro-American secularists.
I have speculated before about the american public and their interest in the nuts and bolts of ‘how government works’ and I still say Bush’s recent poll tank and the current mild rebound is correlated more to gas prices than it is the issues of the day. Not that public opinion isn’t ‘tweaked’ by these little news infarcts; but it’s largely driven by ‘pocketbooks’.
Though, won’t it be ironic if Bush’s success on the anti-terrorist homefront actually brings about a complacency mindset among the voters that winds up benefiting the Democrats. Bush was elected IMO, becasue he was perceived as being stronger on T. So, another successful terrorist attack on the homefront would tend to remind the public more of the Democrats perceived weaknesses on this issue than perhaps Bush’s single failing in letting sadi attack happen. Bush fatigue and a strong economy are offsetting factors. If the Democrats are smart enough to run a centrist, non retreating, Hillary Clinton, they may win.
Dugger
Dugger,
I agree. The irony is that a terrorist attack may redound to Bush’s benefit. However, the Katrina debacle showed that that might be only partially true. Bush tried to look “tough” after Katrina and ended up looking stupid. Then he changed his image in order to look “caring”. It still looked stupid. In a terrorist attack toughness counts much more. Still, the country is too divided now to rally around Bush the way it did after 9/11.
I think that if the Dems nominate Mark Warner, the Dems will take the White House in 2008. If they nominate Hillary Clinton, it will be much tougher.
Elrod, I think Warner or Clinton are electable. One thing I expect: Up to the Party nomination, both will play more to the Party ideological (more left wing) core, then after the election they will tack right, especially on foreign policy. It may be interesting to see if Warner thinks his only shot is to run, at the ONSET, as a DLC moderate type – putting Hillary to his left. They then could split the ‘right wing’ Democratic vote and a party left winger, Edwards (?), sneaks in.
IMO Edwards or a defined leftist candidate would lose to a moderate Repub like Guiliani who is perceived as strong on the WOT (but then, Guiliani may have trouble with the Repub nomination). Nobody talks about McCain’s age (he would be about 72 when elected). I think it becomes a factor.
Dugger, Random Electro Impulses Firing
“Bush’s success on the anti-terrorist homefront…”
“Strong economy…”
Holy sh*t, that’s some strong kool aid.
Is it really worth it to go to the trouble of debunking those myths again?
With a few changes and substitutions, this could be portrayed as the 10 – Step Scandal Deflection Program of the Clinton administration.
Perhaps this is something peculiar to Presidents, or, more likely, IMHO, a case of “My special prosecutor can beat your special prosecutor.”
The Democrats opened the barn doors in 1972, and the horses have yet to be returned.
Yes, please explain how this economy is not strong …