Tim Kaine Week: The Last 24 Hours
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Going into tomorrow’s election, SurveyUSA shows Kaine up by 9 points, a swing from -10 to +9 in just about 3 months. But the race is going to be close, folks. Virginia Dems, you guys have got to get out the vote. Show America that the Dems can win in the south and that the scandal-ridden president’s coattails aren’t worth a thing.
Tim Kaine could be the tipping point.
Even for Election Eve, Kilgore is unusually nervous. On Tuesday night, he will either be Governor-elect of the Old Dominion, one of the nation’s most reliably Republican states, or poster boy for his national party’s woes heading into next year’s mid-term elections. “We can’t even win in Virginia?”
I’ll note that the Kilgore’s campaign tactic in the last two weeks is to scream that Kaine is “liberal, liberal, liberal”… and Kaine has gone up in the polls.
12 Responses to “Tim Kaine Week: The Last 24 Hours”
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© 2000-2011 Oliver Willis
“Show America that the Dems can win in the south”
Is Mark Warner a Republican?
Well I guess I should have said that it shows that a moderate Dem can still win in the south. It isn’t Mark Warner running for re-election. When people go into the booth tomorrow, they’ll be voting for Kaine – to continue Warner’s legacy.
C’mon man. Don’t make Oliver think so hard.
It wasn’t so long ago that a democrat won the governorship of Alabama. The idea that the south is indelibly red is a myth, and it’s a myth that has a good chance of being solidly debunked in the next year or so. There’s plenty of intelligent life down here!
Tsk. While largely Republican, VA is increasingly not the South. I will say that about 50% of the state is southern. I wouldn’t be suprised if Kaine creams this guy
White Whale is right.
To understand VA–you have to understand Northern VA is actually quite blue while Southern VA is quite red. Northern VA represents the economic engine of VA and Southern VA is more tied to agriculture and manufacturing. However, Southern VA sees the writing on the wall and agriculture is diminishing.
The same thing is happening in NC but more slowly.
Not only is Northern VA blue, but it is growing like crazy. Moreover, the outer extension of Northern VA is not as red as it once was, thanks to concerns about traffic, school/parks construction and overdevelopment. Also, the outer suburbs of NoVa are not as racially homogenous as they were 25 years ago. Go to a townhome community in Stafford, Fauquier or outer Loudoun County and you’ll see plenty of African Americans, Latinos and Asians, whereas in the 1980s, the then-outer suburbs of western Fairfax and Prince William were solidly white (except Manassas city). Not surprisingly, Kaine is doing very well in outer NoVa suburbia. Kilgore will do very well in the Southwest (better than Warner did) and the Valley (always GOP), but he may not have enough to overcome Kaine’s support in the suburbs.
I beg to differ. Although much bluer than the rest of the state, Northern Va is far from monolothically blue. For the best proof of that, look no farther than the 2004 election results; Kerry won only one county – Fairfax – in northern Va. Same as in 2000, if memory serves.
good post jersey
Dugger
Don’t know if anyone caught this over at D.Kos – but this is freakin’ outrageous
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2005/11/7/16214/4559
We’re all used to “dirty politics” but this is a whole new (low) level of sleaze… almost as bad as
http://www.hillnews.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Frontpage/110805/news1.html
From Survey USA where OW got the 9 point lead number, they added a few caveats that Oliver did not share with the rest of the group:
“Interviews in the Virginia governor’s race conducted by SurveyUSA tonight Monday 11/7 (but before President Bush appeared in Richmond) show a swing back towards Republican candidate Jerry Kilgore, causing SurveyUSA to now update its final projection in the Virginia Governor’s Contest. This morning, based on interviews conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday (11/4/05 through 11/6/05), SurveyUSA released data that showed Democrat Tim Kaine 9 points ahead of Kilgore. However, because of intra-day volatility in that data, SurveyUSA continued to poll throughout the afternoon and evening today Monday 11/7. When interviews from the most recent 3 days — Saturday, Sunday and today Monday — are averaged, Kaine’s lead shrinks now to 5 points. When interviews from just the past two days — Sunday and today Monday — are averaged, the contest is closer yet. When interviews from Monday only are considered, the contest is tied, but the Margin of Sampling error from just the one day of interviewing is high enough, and the results aberrant enough, that SurveyUSA is uncomfortable reporting just Monday-only data. For the record, SurveyUSA goes into the clubhouse with its final projection (based on Saturday, Sunday and Monday polling): Kaine 50%, Kilgore 45%. A closer outcome still is possible.”
Hmmmm…
“Tsk. While largely Republican, VA is increasingly not the South.”
The hell does that mean? This proud Tennessean (ninth generation, thank you) would like to know where you get off telling us what is and is not the South.
Black people have always lived here. Queer people have always lived here (don’t suppose you know squat about Southern literature?) God knows women have always lived here.
Just because those Southern people who have traditionally been marginalized are beginning to speak up for themselves does not make them one whit less Southern. It’s our country, too.